{"id":8649,"date":"2019-01-26T15:41:16","date_gmt":"2019-01-26T15:41:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=8649"},"modified":"2019-01-26T15:41:16","modified_gmt":"2019-01-26T15:41:16","slug":"can-sp-500-finally-break-the-downtrend-line-off-the-sept-18-peak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=8649","title":{"rendered":"Can SP 500 Finally Break the Downtrend Line off the Sept. &#8217;18 Peak?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"503\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sp500daily12718-2-1024x503.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8651\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sp500daily12718-2-1024x503.png 1024w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sp500daily12718-2-300x147.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sp500daily12718-2-768x378.png 768w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sp500daily12718-2.png 1906w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>SP 500 daily chart as of 1\/25\/19 <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Trading back above the downtrend line will be the 2nd major test after the SP 500 recovered it&#8217;s 50-day moving average near 2,600. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The government shutdown likely took the Fed \/ FOMC off the table for a while in terms of the US economy, although the last December &#8217;18 jobs report of +312,000 net new jobs created and last week&#8217;s jobless claims number under 200,000 for the first time since the late 1960&#8217;s indicates the labor market is strong. However there is just no inflation, wage or commodity. Pretty amazing 10 years into an economic recovery. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>SP 500 Earnings data (Source: I\/B\/E\/S by Refinitiv) <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong><em>Fwd 4-qtr est: <\/em><\/strong>$170.01 vs $170.98<\/li><li><strong><em>PE ratio:<\/em><\/strong> 15.6x<\/li><li><strong><em>PEG ratio:<\/em><\/strong> 3x<\/li><li><strong><em>SP 500 earnings yield<\/em><\/strong>: 6.38% vs last week&#8217;s 6.40% <\/li><li><strong><em>Year-over-year growth of fwd est: <\/em><\/strong>+4.9% vs last week&#8217;s +5.5% <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The Technology sector&#8217;s expected earnings growth rates continue to be weak and revised lower, even as Microsoft is set to report their fiscal Q2 &#8217;19 earnings this coming week. Microsoft could be the &#8220;ying&#8221; to Apple&#8217;s &#8220;yang&#8221; this quarter, since Microsoft has overtaken Apple as the #1 stock by market cap weight in the SP 500. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here is how the Tech sector&#8217;s expected earnings growth rates look over the next 4 quarters: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong><em>Q4 &#8217;19:<\/em><\/strong> +9.2%<\/li><li><strong><em>Q3 &#8217;19:<\/em><\/strong> -1%<\/li><li><strong><em>Q2 &#8217;19:<\/em><\/strong> -2.3%<\/li><li><strong><em>Q1 &#8217;19: <\/em><\/strong>-2.2%<\/li><li><strong><em>Q4 &#8217;18:<\/em><\/strong>  +8.9%<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s obvious the I\/B\/E\/S data is looking for a weak 2019 for Tech, with the exception of Q4 &#8217;19 although we have to give it a few weeks to see if the 4th quarter expectations hold up after Microsoft, Apple and such. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Apple is a big influence on these numbers and its clear this will be a transition year for the iPhone and Tech Hardware the next few quarters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Tech sector continues to be a major downward pull for the SP 500 expected 2019 earnings growth as of today. Microsoft&#8217;s report this week could definitely help the sector. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trading back above the downtrend line will be the 2nd major test after the SP 500 recovered it&#8217;s 50-day moving&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,91],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8649","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","category-weekly-earnings-update"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8649","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8649"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8649\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8655,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8649\/revisions\/8655"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8649"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8649"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8649"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}