{"id":8516,"date":"2018-12-15T14:11:24","date_gmt":"2018-12-15T14:11:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=8516"},"modified":"2018-12-15T14:11:24","modified_gmt":"2018-12-15T14:11:24","slug":"sp-500-earnings-yield-now-the-highest-since-jan-16","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=8516","title":{"rendered":"SP 500 Earnings Yield Now The Highest Since Jan &#8217;16"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The SP 500 is down roughly 10% &#8211; 11% from its late September &#8217;18 high and yet market bearishness is the highest in 6 years ?<\/p>\n<p>Here is the SP 500 earnings data: (Source IBES by Refinitiv)<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>Fwd 4-qtr est:<\/strong><\/em> $170.53 vs last weeks $171.05<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>PE ratio:\u00a0<\/strong><\/em>15x<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>PEG ratio:<\/strong><\/em> 1.9x<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>SP 500 earnings yield:<\/strong><\/em> 6.56% vs last weeks 6.50%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Year-over-year growth of fwd est:<\/strong><\/em> 8% vs last weeks 8.4%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em><strong>Summary \/ Conclusion:\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Here are the technical levels being watched<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>November &#8217;18 SP 500 low<\/strong><\/em> &#8211; 2,631.09 &#8211; we&#8217;re through that level<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>October &#8217;18 SP 500 low<\/strong><\/em> &#8211;\u00a0 2,603.54 &#8211; the SP 500 closed below that level Friday, December 14th, 2018<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Last weeks (Dec 10) low<\/strong><\/em> &#8211; 2,583<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Feb &#8217;18 and 2018 low<\/strong><\/em> &#8211; 2,532 &#8211; still above<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The fascinating metric this week is that &#8211; with the SP 500 earnings ending the week at 6.56% &#8211; its the highest print on my spreadsheet since January 2 &#8217;16 or just prior to the end of the 2015 &#8211; 2016 correction.<\/p>\n<p>That Jan 1 &#8217;16 SP 500 earnings yield was 6.62% so not much higher than Friday&#8217;s close.<\/p>\n<p>Something has to give &#8211; either SP 500 earnings roll over meaning the forward estimates start to decline, or we start to see a bid under stocks. Banks seem awful cheap &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=8505\">here<\/a> was the blog post from last night.<\/p>\n<p>More to come on Sunday morning.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for reading&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The SP 500 is down roughly 10% &#8211; 11% from its late September &#8217;18 high and yet market bearishness is&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[162,91],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8516","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sp-500-earnings-yield","category-weekly-earnings-update"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8516","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8516"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8516\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8521,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8516\/revisions\/8521"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8516"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8516"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8516"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}