{"id":8387,"date":"2018-11-09T23:43:21","date_gmt":"2018-11-09T23:43:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=8387"},"modified":"2018-11-09T23:57:43","modified_gmt":"2018-11-09T23:57:43","slug":"how-have-2019-sp-500-earnings-growth-estimates-changed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=8387","title":{"rendered":"How have 2019 SP 500 Earnings Growth Estimates Changed ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>WalMart (WMT) officially ends the Q3 &#8217;18 earnings season this week, with their report Thursday morning.<\/p>\n<p>Looking ahead to next year and to answer the headline question directly, &#8220;Not Much&#8221; is probably the best answer.<\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s look at the data: (Source: IBES by Refinitiv)<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_8388\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8388\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?attachment_id=8388\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-8388\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-8388\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019SP500EPSgro11918-300x88.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"88\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019SP500EPSgro11918-300x88.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019SP500EPSgro11918.png 506w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-8388\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">click to enhance \/ enlarge<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>With the exception of the sharp drop in Q3 &#8217;19 earnings growth expectations, 2019 SP 500 growth estimates have remained relatively stable the last 3 &#8211; 4 months.<\/p>\n<p>A Run through the Weekly Numbers:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>Fwd 4-qtr est:<\/strong><\/em> $172.17<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>PE ratio:<\/strong><\/em> 16x<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>PEG ratio:<\/strong><\/em> 0.77x<\/li>\n<li>\u00a0<em><strong>SP 500 earnings yield:<\/strong><\/em> 6.19%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Y\/y growth of fwd est:<\/strong><\/em> +20.9% vs last weeks 21.7%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em><strong>Summary \/ conclusion: <\/strong><\/em>The 2% rally in the SP 500 this week brought the key benchmark back above its 200-day moving average, as the SP 500 and the major equity indices continue to recover from the October &#8217;18 drawdown. WalMart (WMT), Cisco (CSCO), and a couple of semiconductor companies like Nvidia (NVDA) and Applied Materials (AMAT) report this week. The Semiconductor sector has gotten pounded since it peaked in Q1 &#8217;18. The sector is extremely difficult to trade, and my experience with the sector is that it takes 12 &#8211; 18 months for the sector to bottom after it start to correct, although that depends on the stock and the company.<\/p>\n<p>The semiconductor sector is approaching oversold on the weekly chart.<\/p>\n<p>2019 SP 500 earnings growth estimates &#8211; so far anyway &#8211; have shown little change from earlier blog posts <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=8308\">here<\/a>\u00a0which addresses Technology specifically, and <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=8116\">here<\/a>\u00a0which shows the 2019 estimate still at $177.25 (the 2019 estimate is $177.25) versus a higher 2018 estimate.<\/p>\n<p>2019 SP 500 earnings has slowed but because the 2018 estimate has risen, not that 2019 has declined.<\/p>\n<p>More to come this weekend.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>WalMart (WMT) officially ends the Q3 &#8217;18 earnings season this week, with their report Thursday morning. Looking ahead to next&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[213,91],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8387","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-2019-sp-500-earnings","category-weekly-earnings-update"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8387","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8387"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8387\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8393,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8387\/revisions\/8393"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8387"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8387"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8387"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}