{"id":8353,"date":"2018-10-30T22:30:55","date_gmt":"2018-10-30T22:30:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=8353"},"modified":"2018-10-30T22:30:55","modified_gmt":"2018-10-30T22:30:55","slug":"sp-500-revenue-growth-2018-sp-500-revenue-growth-the-strongest-in-past-7-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=8353","title":{"rendered":"SP 500 Revenue Growth:  2018 SP 500 Revenue Growth the Strongest in Past 7 Years"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/-Sso7tEf790\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<table style=\"border-collapse: collapse; width: 96pt;\" border=\"0\" width=\"128\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<colgroup>\n<col style=\"width: 48pt;\" span=\"2\" width=\"64\" \/> <\/colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"height: 15.0pt;\">\n<td class=\"xl72\" style=\"height: 15.0pt; width: 96pt;\" colspan=\"2\" width=\"128\" height=\"20\">Revenue<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 37.5pt;\">\n<td class=\"xl70\" style=\"height: 37.5pt; border-top: none; width: 48pt;\" width=\"64\" height=\"50\">Period<\/td>\n<td class=\"xl71\" style=\"border-top: none; border-left: none; width: 48pt;\" width=\"64\">S&amp;P 500 Total<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 15.0pt;\">\n<td class=\"xl66\" style=\"height: 15.0pt;\" height=\"20\">2020E<\/td>\n<td class=\"xl67\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 15.0pt;\">\n<td class=\"xl66\" style=\"height: 15.0pt;\" height=\"20\">2019E<\/td>\n<td class=\"xl67\" align=\"right\">5.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 15.0pt;\">\n<td class=\"xl66\" style=\"height: 15.0pt;\" height=\"20\">2018E<\/td>\n<td class=\"xl67\" align=\"right\">8.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 15.0pt;\">\n<td class=\"xl68\" style=\"height: 15.0pt;\" height=\"20\">2017<\/td>\n<td class=\"xl69\" align=\"right\">6.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 15.0pt;\">\n<td class=\"xl68\" style=\"height: 15.0pt;\" height=\"20\">2016<\/td>\n<td class=\"xl69\" align=\"right\">1.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 15.0pt;\">\n<td class=\"xl68\" style=\"height: 15.0pt;\" height=\"20\">2015<\/td>\n<td class=\"xl69\" align=\"right\">-3.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 15.0pt;\">\n<td class=\"xl68\" style=\"height: 15.0pt;\" height=\"20\">2014<\/td>\n<td class=\"xl69\" align=\"right\">3.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 15.0pt;\">\n<td class=\"xl68\" style=\"height: 15.0pt;\" height=\"20\">2013<\/td>\n<td class=\"xl69\" align=\"right\">1.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 15.0pt;\">\n<td class=\"xl68\" style=\"height: 15.0pt;\" height=\"20\">2012<\/td>\n<td class=\"xl69\" align=\"right\">1.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Source: Refinitiv IBES<\/p>\n<p>Thanks to Tajinder Dhillon, part of David Aurelio&#8217;s team at Refinitiv IBES, the old Thomson Reuters Financial and Data Group, this blog got a look at historic &#8220;annual&#8221; revenue growth for the SP 500 since 2012. (See attached table. For some strange reason, Refinitiv doesn&#8217;t have annual SP 500 revenue growth back further than that.)<\/p>\n<p>Readers can see that 2018 will be strongest year of annual revenue growth of the past 7 years.<\/p>\n<p>2019 is expected to see slower revenue growth, but still positive.<\/p>\n<p>In 2014, 2015 that drop from +3% to -3%, was likely due to Energy and the stronger US dollar. It was in late August, 2014, that crude oil started to become unglued, tumbling from $90 to $28 by late January &#8217;16.<\/p>\n<p>For some reason, it caused a spike in the US dollar from October &#8217;14, to March &#8217;15, one of the most rapid periods of dollar strengthening for a 6-month period ever.<\/p>\n<p>The dollar has been well bid in 2018 despite the equity market weakness of late. Crude oil has been soft too. I haven&#8217;t figured out the relationship there i.e. every time crude oil starts to weaken, the dollar seems to firm, or if there is even &#8220;causality&#8221; present between the two assets.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Summary:<\/strong><\/em> given the strength in SP 500 revenue growth, still much stronger than the period from 2010 through 2016, I dont think this volatility we are seeing is SP 500 earnings or revenue related.<\/p>\n<p>However, take all opinions with a grain of salt.<\/p>\n<p>2019 has been expected to be slower for a while &#8211; the consensus estimates for 2019 have been looking for 10% earnings growth for the SP 500 for the last 12 months.<\/p>\n<p>Just putting the data out there &#8211; writing helps me think through the issues. It also eases market-related anxiety.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; Revenue Period S&amp;P 500 Total 2020E 2019E 5.4% 2018E 8.4% 2017 6.6% 2016 1.1% 2015 -3.6% 2014 3.9% 2013&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[196,213,114],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8353","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-196","category-2019-sp-500-earnings","category-sp-500-revenue-growth"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8353","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8353"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8353\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8357,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8353\/revisions\/8357"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8353"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8353"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8353"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}