{"id":8134,"date":"2018-09-22T21:04:43","date_gmt":"2018-09-22T21:04:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=8134"},"modified":"2018-09-24T12:17:45","modified_gmt":"2018-09-24T12:17:45","slug":"sp-500-weekly-update-investor-sentiment-by-one-metric-is-still-horrid","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=8134","title":{"rendered":"SP 500 Weekly Update: Investor Sentiment &#8211; by One Metric &#8211; is Still Horrid"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) puts out a weekly investor sentiment survey and this week the AAII investors that voted themselves as being bullish on the market, totaled a whopping 32%.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_8136\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8136\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?attachment_id=8136\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-8136\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-8136\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/AAIIsurveybespoke92018-300x168.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"168\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/AAIIsurveybespoke92018-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/AAIIsurveybespoke92018.png 587w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-8136\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Click to enhance \/ enlarge<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Here is the summary data:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>AAII % bullish: 32%<\/li>\n<li>AAII neutral: 35.9%<\/li>\n<li>AAII bearish: 32%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Think about the above data. We&#8217;ve been in a bull market for 10 years since the bear market low, or 5 years if you measure from when the 2000 and 2007 highs of 1,550 were taken out in May, 2013.<\/p>\n<p>Here is the wrinkle though. I&#8217;ve often wondered if the AAII survey has lost its relevance as a sentiment indicator. I subscribed to AAII in the mid-80&#8217;s for a while. The average age of its readership could be substantially older than the average TheStreet, or StockTwits or Josh Brown reader on Twitter.<\/p>\n<p>The newsletter writers tend to be more bullish, as they should be in my opinion.<\/p>\n<p>This blog has made a couple of attempts to talk about market sentiment:<a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=8096\"> here<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=8087\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Sentiment &#8211; to me anyway &#8211; still seems unduly bearish.<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;-<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>SP 500 Earnings data (Source: Thomson Reuters TWIE)<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>Fwd 4-qtr est:<\/strong><\/em>$169.07 vs last week&#8217;s $169.10<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>PE ratio:<\/strong><\/em> 17.3x<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>PEG ratio:<\/strong><\/em> 0.76x<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>SP 500 earnings yield:<\/strong><\/em> +5.77% vs +5.82% last week<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Year-over-year growth of fwd est:<\/strong><\/em> +22.92% vs last week&#8217;s +22.87%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The year-over-year growth of the forward estimate continues to expand or grow, which is always a positive.<\/p>\n<p>Thomson Reuters IBES provides the forward estimate every week, but this blog has tracked it for years.<\/p>\n<p>Here is the forward progression of full-year &#8220;calendar&#8221; SP 500 EPS estimates:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>2020:<\/strong><\/em> $194.82 for expected 9% SP 500 EPS growth in calendar 2019<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>2019:<\/strong><\/em> $178.86 for expected 10% SP 500 EPS growth in calendar 2019<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>2018:<\/strong><\/em> $162.19 for expected 23% SP 500 EPS growth in calendar 2018<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>You can see how earnings growth is expected to return to a more normal historical gros rate next year, when it will lap the tax cuts.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for reading&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) puts out a weekly investor sentiment survey and this week the AAII investors&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[150],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8134","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-market-sentiment"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8134","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8134"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8134\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8159,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8134\/revisions\/8159"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8134"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8134"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8134"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}