{"id":8116,"date":"2018-09-20T12:22:26","date_gmt":"2018-09-20T12:22:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=8116"},"modified":"2018-09-20T18:46:44","modified_gmt":"2018-09-20T18:46:44","slug":"another-look-at-2019-sp-500-earnings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=8116","title":{"rendered":"Another Look at 2019 SP 500 Earnings"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=8106\">last weekend&#8217;s post<\/a> on SP 500 earnings, we looked at the weekly rate of change in the SP 500 2019 EPS estimate.<\/p>\n<p>Here is the same data looking at the year-over-year change in the 2019 SP 500 EPS estimate:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>9\/14\/18: <\/strong><\/em>$178.85 +12.5% expected y\/y growth<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>8\/17\/18: <\/strong><\/em>$178.58 +12.1% expected y\/y growth<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>7\/13\/18:<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0$177.16 +10.7% expected y\/y growth<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>6\/15\/18:<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0$176.94 +9.9% expected y\/y growth<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>5\/13\/18: <\/strong><\/em>$176.61 +9.1% expected y\/y growth<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>(Source: Thomson Reuters IBES earnings data, tracking the data is my own work)<\/p>\n<p>To provide some color to the above, the 52-week change between the current SP 500 forward EPS estimate and the estimate from 52 weeks ago, continues to expect gradually faster growth.<\/p>\n<p>Take this data with a small grain of salt though. We will get the first peek at 2019 SP 500 guidance from some companies with October earnings, but the majority of full-year 2019 earnings guidance will come in January &#8211; February of &#8217;19.<\/p>\n<p>Readers need to know that in 2019 the SP 500 will be lapping the reduction to a 20% corporate income tax rate, which we estimated here as <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=8056\">accounting for roughly half<\/a>\u00a0of the 2018&#8217;s +20% EPS growth rate.<\/p>\n<p>Right now, 2019 SP 500 earnings estimates are trending the right way, and the fact that there is little &#8220;exuberance&#8221; over this is indicative of the post-2008 world.<\/p>\n<p>Market valuation will always be used by both market bulls and bears &#8211; keep the faith &#8211; my own opinion is that this post-2008 SP 500 and US stock market is very healthy.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for reading&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In last weekend&#8217;s post on SP 500 earnings, we looked at the weekly rate of change in the SP 500&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[213],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8116","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-2019-sp-500-earnings"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8116","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8116"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8116\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8121,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8116\/revisions\/8121"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8116"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8116"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8116"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}