{"id":8042,"date":"2018-08-27T23:57:17","date_gmt":"2018-08-27T23:57:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=8042"},"modified":"2018-08-27T23:57:17","modified_gmt":"2018-08-27T23:57:17","slug":"breadth-sentiment-the-no-bs-model","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=8042","title":{"rendered":"Breadth &#038; Sentiment: The &#8220;No BS Model&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Readers know my appreciation of Bespoke&#8217;s work, the firm started by Paul Hickey and his crew after coming out of Laszlo Birinyi&#8217;s shop (and Laszlo published some pretty good research as well) and last Friday&#8217;s weekly &#8220;Bespoke Report&#8221; was no disappointment for subscribers:<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>On Market breadth:\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_8043\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8043\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?attachment_id=8043\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-8043\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-8043\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/SP500breadth82418-300x239.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"239\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/SP500breadth82418-300x239.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/SP500breadth82418-768x613.png 768w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/SP500breadth82418.png 783w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-8043\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">click to enhance or enlarge<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>On retail investor sentiment:\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_8045\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8045\" style=\"width: 262px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?attachment_id=8045\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-8045\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-8045\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sentiment82418-262x300.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sentiment82418-262x300.png 262w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sentiment82418-768x879.png 768w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sentiment82418.png 798w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 262px) 100vw, 262px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-8045\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">click to enhance or enlarge<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>(Charts and comments within the charts courtesy of the Bespoke Report, published every Friday night each week.)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Analysis \/ conclusion:<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0Note the last bullet point of the sentiment charts &#8211; it sums up my own thoughts precisely.<\/p>\n<p>This blog&#8217;s piece written on July 20, 2018 relating to <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=7945\">market sentiment<\/a>\u00a0wasn&#8217;t as articulate as Bespoke, but the &#8220;sentiment factor&#8221; continues to play a vital role in keeping a bid under stocks in my opinion, that and <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=8039\">SP 500 forward earnings estimates too.\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n<p>You&#8217;ve got a lot of things going right for stocks here:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields can&#8217;t seem to rise, which is a positive for stocks<\/li>\n<li>Forward SP 500 earnings estimates are still expected to grow 10% in 2019 against the 20% &#8220;comp&#8221; growth and tax-rate aided growth of 2018;<\/li>\n<li>Investor sentiment remains tepid at best, and although AAII&#8217;s survey might have lost some of its cachet over the years and newsletter writers are thought to be more bullish, the survey is still widely followed;<\/li>\n<li>As Bespoke tells you, the consistent highs in market breadth in 2018 despite the 7 month consolidation in the SP 500 (price) is a definite plus for expected forward returns;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>My own take on all of this is that with the market &#8220;quietly&#8221; making new highs the last two days, the <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=7714\">&#8220;1998&#8221; residue lives on.\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Breadth and sentiment &#8211; two often-overlooked factors of\u00a0 market\u00a0pundits.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for reading&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Readers know my appreciation of Bespoke&#8217;s work, the firm started by Paul Hickey and his crew after coming out of&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[199,150],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8042","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-breadth","category-stock-market-sentiment"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8042","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8042"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8042\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8050,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8042\/revisions\/8050"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8042"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8042"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8042"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}