{"id":7659,"date":"2018-04-06T22:31:09","date_gmt":"2018-04-06T22:31:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=7659"},"modified":"2018-04-06T22:31:09","modified_gmt":"2018-04-06T22:31:09","slug":"will-q1-18-earnings-put-a-floor-under-stocks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=7659","title":{"rendered":"Will Q1 &#8217;18 Earnings Put a Floor Under Stocks ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_7660\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-7660\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?attachment_id=7660\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7660\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-7660\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/SP500weekly4618-300x156.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"156\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/SP500weekly4618-300x156.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/SP500weekly4618-768x400.png 768w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/SP500weekly4618-1024x533.png 1024w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/SP500weekly4618.png 1918w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-7660\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">click to enlarge<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Normally the weekly earnings missive doesn&#8217;t start with a chart, but with the SP 500 sitting on its 200-day moving average, and many big banks and financials slated to start the Q1 &#8217;18 earnings releases for the SP 500, will earnings put a floor under the stock market this coming week ?<\/p>\n<p>The February 9th, 2018 low for the SP 500 is 2,532 &#8211; that&#8217;s still a good flush lower for the key benchmark.<\/p>\n<p>That being said, isn&#8217;t it ironic and so like the market to see its biggest correction in the last 24 months, alongside or coincident with the largest upward revisions over a 90 day period in SP 500 earnings estimates, maybe ever ?<\/p>\n<p>From the last Friday in December &#8217;17 to the last Friday in March, 2018, the SP 500 &#8220;forward 4-quarter estimate&#8221; rose from $143.34 to $158.14, or from an expected y\/y growth rate from 11.5% to 20.74%.<\/p>\n<p>Here were two headlines today from both Factset and Thomson:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Factset: &#8220;Record Number of S&amp;P 500 Companies issuing Positive EPS Guidance for Q1, Led By Tech&#8221; John Butters<\/li>\n<li>Thomson: &#8221;\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/lipperalpha.financial.thomsonreuters.com\/2018\/04\/earnings-roundup-sp-500-set-to-post-the-strongest-yoy-earnings-in-7-years\/\">Earnings Roundup: S&amp;P 500 Set to Post the Strongest YoY Earnings in 7 Years&#8221;\u00a0<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The problem is, we have known this know since December 22nd, when the President signed the tax reform bill, and the forward estimates began rising almost immediately.<\/p>\n<p>Here is the weekly Thomson Reuters data updated as of Friday, 4\/6\/18:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Fwd 4-qtr est: $151.92 vs last week&#8217;s $158.14<\/li>\n<li>P.E ratio: 16(x)<\/li>\n<li>PEG ratio: 0.81x<\/li>\n<li>SP 500 earnings yield: 6.22%<\/li>\n<li>Year-over-year growth of forward estimate: 19.82% vs last week&#8217;s 20.74%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em><strong>Conclusion:<\/strong> <\/em>My own opinion &#8211; and its just an opinion &#8211; is that this stock market pullback has little to do with anything but a LONG overdue correction. The last time there was real fear in the market was the first quarter of 2016, as crude fell to $28.50 and credit spreads blew out. If credit spreads remain well bid, that will likely tell you as much about tariffs as any market indicator.<\/p>\n<p>To answer the headline question, &#8220;Will Q1 &#8217;18 SP 500 earnings put a floor under stocks ?&#8221; the answer is &#8220;the earnings increase is already well-telegraphed&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s not an answer but I subscribe to the Bespoke school of quarterly earnings forecasting, i.e. &#8220;the more bearish coming into earnings season, the better&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>One headline read today was for the &#8220;blockbuster earnings season&#8221; to start next week. Didnt like to read that.<\/p>\n<p>While bearish sentiment and market pessimism grows, Q1 &#8217;18 earnings may NOT be the panacea or saving catalyst that many expect.<\/p>\n<p>Large-cap, Growth, Tech and Momentum might all struggle in 2018 given the 2017 out-performance.<\/p>\n<p>Client&#8217;s Financial sector weighting has been lifted this year. The sector remains reasonably valued and can benefit from easier regulation and capital returns.<\/p>\n<p>Again, these are opinions, not predictions, and any changes can happen quickly if the market dictates.<\/p>\n<p>More tomorrow &#8211; thanks for reading.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; Normally the weekly earnings missive doesn&#8217;t start with a chart, but with the SP 500 sitting on its 200-day&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[157,91],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7659","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sp-500-200-day-moving-average","category-weekly-earnings-update"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7659","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7659"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7659\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7666,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7659\/revisions\/7666"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7659"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7659"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7659"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}