{"id":7531,"date":"2018-01-28T23:28:16","date_gmt":"2018-01-28T23:28:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=7531"},"modified":"2018-01-28T23:28:16","modified_gmt":"2018-01-28T23:28:16","slug":"whats-driving-this-stock-market-p-e-expansion-or-earnings-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=7531","title":{"rendered":"What&#8217;s Driving this Stock Market &#8211; P.E Expansion or Earnings Growth ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Here is the data:<\/p>\n<p>Estimated 2018 SP 500 EPS growth, with accompanying P.E<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>1\/26\/2018:<\/strong><\/em> +16%, 18.7x<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>1\/19\/2018:<\/strong><\/em> +15%, 18.5x<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>1\/12\/2018:<\/strong><\/em> +14%, 18.5x<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>1\/5\/2018:<\/strong><\/em> +12%, 18.5x<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>12\/29\/2017:<\/strong><\/em> +12%, 18.7x<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In Friday&#8217;s post (<a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=7523\">here<\/a>) we showed the same numbers, but with tonight&#8217;s data I wanted readers to clearly see two metrics:<\/p>\n<p>1.) 2018 estimated EPS growth for the SP 500 has accelerated from 12% to 16% in just 4 weeks, pretty extraordinary given that the usual revision pattern is downward pressure on the forward estimate;<\/p>\n<p>2.) The P.E ratio on the SP 500 as of Friday, January 26th, 2018, is exactly the same as on 12\/29\/17.<\/p>\n<p>There has been no &#8220;P.E expansion&#8221; at all with this rally.<\/p>\n<p>At some point we&#8217;ll see a correction. There has been a new stock market record set recently with the longest streak without a 5% correction in history, per many technicians who track this kind of data, like Ryan Detrich of LPL Financial.<\/p>\n<p>The SP 500 continues to simply &#8220;walk up&#8221; estimated earnings growth for 2018.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Here is the data: Estimated 2018 SP 500 EPS growth, with accompanying P.E 1\/26\/2018: +16%, 18.7x 1\/19\/2018: +15%, 18.5x 1\/12\/2018:&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[89,140,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7531","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-earnings-estimate-revisions","category-pe-expansion-contraction","category-sp-500"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7531","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7531"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7531\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7532,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7531\/revisions\/7532"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7531"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7531"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7531"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}