{"id":7256,"date":"2017-10-15T22:58:53","date_gmt":"2017-10-15T22:58:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=7256"},"modified":"2017-10-15T22:58:53","modified_gmt":"2017-10-15T22:58:53","slug":"corrections-the-next-one-should-be-nasty-but-may-not-be-tomorrow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=7256","title":{"rendered":"Corrections: The Next One Should Be Nasty, But May Not Be Tomorrow"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Personally, Ive always felt that stock markets corrections are like sudden death: you know it&#8217;s coming, just not the timing or the form it will take.<\/p>\n<p>What will the next stock market correction look like ?<\/p>\n<p>Wider Credit Spreads would help &#8211; high yield spreads are near 2007 tights.<\/p>\n<p>Higher interest rates would help &#8211; even with the Fed pushing short rates higher, the yield curve needs to steepen.<\/p>\n<p>The largest corrections are usually from some outside force, some &#8220;exogenous shock&#8221; and those are the hardest to predict. It could be anything from North Korea to potential impeachment action, to a disruption in Europe like Greece or Catalonia.<\/p>\n<p>Who knows ? And more importantly does it really matter ?<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Bespoke (as always) had some interesting stats this week and last week:\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>It has now been 3,132 days since the last 20% decline (8.5 years &#8211; Is that for real ? )<\/li>\n<li>It has been 602 days since last 10% decline<\/li>\n<li>It has been 465 days since last 5% decline<\/li>\n<li>It has been 335 days since last 3% decline<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Source: Bespoke Report 10\/6\/17<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>So far in &#8217;17 per Bespoke from this weekend&#8217;s research, the DJIA daily move has been just 0.305% the smallest since 1964.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>But here is the flip side: (from Ryan Detrick&#8217;s Twitter feed this past week)<\/p>\n<p>When the <a class=\"twitter-hashtag pretty-link js-nav\" dir=\"ltr\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/SPX?src=hash\" data-query-source=\"hashtag_click\"><s>#<\/s><b>SPX<\/b><\/a> has a 6 month win streak (or more) heading into Q4? Strong returns are normal.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>&#8217;35- +16%<\/li>\n<li>&#8217;58- +10%<\/li>\n<li>&#8217;80- +8%<\/li>\n<li>&#8217;09- +5% &#8216;<\/li>\n<li>17- ?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The 1982 &#8211; 1999 bull market in the SP 500 has just one negative year, and that was 1990.<\/p>\n<p>Sure as you&#8217;re reading this, a decent correction will happen.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Personally, Ive always felt that stock markets corrections are like sudden death: you know it&#8217;s coming, just not the timing&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[165],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7256","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bespoke"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7256","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7256"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7256\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7262,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7256\/revisions\/7262"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7256"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7256"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7256"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}