{"id":7202,"date":"2017-09-30T03:13:11","date_gmt":"2017-09-30T03:13:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=7202"},"modified":"2017-09-30T03:13:11","modified_gmt":"2017-09-30T03:13:11","slug":"forward-4-quarter-sp-500-eps-growth-rate-over-10-finally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=7202","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;Forward 4-Quarter&#8221; SP 500 EPS Growth Rate Over 10% (Finally)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The expected year-over-year growth rate of the SP 500&#8217;s &#8220;forward -4-quarter&#8221; EPS finally moved over 10%, the first print over 10% since &#8211; well &#8211; quite a while.<\/p>\n<p>A lot of folks are talking about the &#8220;tough compares&#8221; for the SP 500 going forward after lapping the easy Energy-depressed earnings of Q1 and 2 &#8217;16.<\/p>\n<p>That expected forward growth rate indicates the future still looks good.<\/p>\n<p>If you are wondering if the forward growth rate is any kind of a leading indicator, we wrote about that <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=7181\">here<\/a> last week.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=7159\">call on the Financial sector<\/a>\u00a0on September 9th, looks pretty good. Financial have rallied sharply since the big banks and brokers pre-announced lousy 3rd quarter trading revenue.<\/p>\n<p>Clients remain overweight Technology and Financials and that continues to look good for Q4 &#8217;17.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Thomson Reuters I\/B\/E\/S earnings data (by the numbers):\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>Fwd 4-qtr estimate:<\/strong><\/em> $137.62<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>P.E ratio:<\/strong><\/em> 18(x)<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>PEG ratio:<\/strong><\/em> 1.83(x)<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>SP 500 earnings yield:<\/strong><\/em> 5.46%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Year-over-year growth of the forward estimate:<\/strong><\/em> +10.02% which I think is the highest y\/y expectation since 2009. It is definitely the highest print in the last few years.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Taking the last Friday of each month this year, and calculating the expected forward SP 500 EPS growth rate, here is the chronology:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>9\/28\/17:<\/strong><\/em> +10.02%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>8\/25\/17:<\/strong><\/em> +9.95%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>7\/28\/17:<\/strong><\/em> +9.21%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>6\/30\/17:<\/strong><\/em> +9.05%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>5\/26\/17:<\/strong><\/em>+9.45%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>4\/28\/17:<\/strong><\/em> +4.21%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>3\/31\/17:<\/strong><\/em> +6.06%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>2\/24\/17:<\/strong><\/em> +8.41%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>1\/27\/217:<\/strong><\/em> +8.00%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The tale of the &#8220;forward expectations&#8221; tape.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The expected year-over-year growth rate of the SP 500&#8217;s &#8220;forward -4-quarter&#8221; EPS finally moved over 10%, the first print over&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[84,53,92,91],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7202","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-financial-sector","category-financials","category-fwd-4-qtr-growth-rate-sp-500","category-weekly-earnings-update"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7202","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7202"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7202\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7204,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7202\/revisions\/7204"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7202"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7202"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7202"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}