{"id":7136,"date":"2017-08-23T23:21:47","date_gmt":"2017-08-23T23:21:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=7136"},"modified":"2017-08-23T23:21:47","modified_gmt":"2017-08-23T23:21:47","slug":"tlt-poised-for-breakout-wouldnt-be-a-plus-for-stock-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=7136","title":{"rendered":"TLT Poised for Breakout ? Wouldn&#8217;t Be a Plus for Stock Market"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Since <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=7083\">this blog post,<\/a>\u00a0the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen, which has put the TLT (below) close to breaking its downtrend line (price, not yield) in place since early 2015.<\/p>\n<p>Not being a trained technician and more an armchair observer, does this chart represent a head-and-shoulders pattern ?<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_7137\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-7137\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?attachment_id=7137\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7137\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-7137\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/TLTweekly82317-300x169.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/TLTweekly82317-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/TLTweekly82317-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/TLTweekly82317-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/TLTweekly82317.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-7137\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Click to enlarge \/ enhance<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Either way, it looks like the TLT is poised to break above this downtrend line.<\/p>\n<p>Great (sarcasm).<\/p>\n<p>The chart of the Transports has been on the verge of breaking down for a few weeks now, but the bond market and particularly Treasuries have frustrated for years.<\/p>\n<p>Owning high yield or investment-grade credit looks to be a poor risk-reward.<\/p>\n<p>With the hike in the fed funds rate to 1% &#8211; 1.25%, clients own Treasury bills and money markets now, and little duration or credit risk.<\/p>\n<p>To be frank with readers, this call has been wrong for many years. Inflation seems non-existent.<\/p>\n<p>Last week, with the Thursday morning jobless claims release showing just 232,000 in initial jobless claims, and near multi-year lows, the Treasury market didn&#8217;t budge.<\/p>\n<p>Transport&#8217;s have been close to a technical breakdown for many weeks.<\/p>\n<p>Another rally in the 10-year Treasury yield through 2.13% and a breakout in the TLT would not be well received in the equity market in my opinion.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for reading&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Since this blog post,\u00a0the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen, which has put the TLT (below) close to breaking its downtrend&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[190,72],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7136","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-10-year-treasury-yield","category-tlt"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7136","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7136"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7136\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7139,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7136\/revisions\/7139"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7136"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7136"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7136"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}