{"id":6651,"date":"2017-02-03T22:09:25","date_gmt":"2017-02-03T22:09:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=6651"},"modified":"2017-02-03T22:09:25","modified_gmt":"2017-02-03T22:09:25","slug":"estimate-revisions-weak-once-again-the-pattern-continues-pretty-bizarre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=6651","title":{"rendered":"Estimate Revisions Weak Once Again – the Pattern Continues – Pretty Bizarre"},"content":{"rendered":"

FC-eps estimate revisions<\/a><\/p>\n

Open or double-click on the above spreadsheet.<\/p>\n

Now here is this post<\/a> from January 8th, 2017 this year.<\/p>\n

This pattern of negative revisions continues to persist in the first quarter of the past few years, despite the fact that this year, the SP 500 was up 1.5% – 2% in January ’17, led by Basic Materials and Technology.<\/p>\n

Last year in Q1 ’16, commodity prices were plummeting, and high-yield spreads were widening, and so it made sense that positive revisions were less than negative revisions.<\/p>\n

In Q1 ’15: Crude oil was collapsing and the US dollar had its record run from Oct ’14 through March ’15.<\/p>\n

In Q1 ’14: Russia invaded Ukraine and Venezuela devalued resulting in much market angst.<\/p>\n

The point is that the negative-to-positive revision ratio given the “macro” in ’17, you would have thought would have come to an end.<\/p>\n

Not so much.<\/p>\n

Energy was one of the worst performing sectors in January ’17, down almost 5%. The one flaw to the revision ratio is that it isn’t broken down by sector – all that can be seen is the “index level” revisions.<\/p>\n

So how does this data influence the investment process ? It may be why the SP 500 hasn’t broken out yet above 2,300, despite the economic data today.<\/p>\n

Ultimately analysts are still cautious and not yet raging bullish. Have to think that’s a good thing.<\/p>\n

The SP 500 Weekly Earnings Update may not be out till Sunday or Monday – traveling this weekend to see a client.<\/p>\n

Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FC-eps estimate revisions Open or double-click on the above spreadsheet. Now here is this post from January 8th, 2017 this…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[186],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6651","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-eps-estimate-revisions"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6651","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6651"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6651\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6653,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6651\/revisions\/6653"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6651"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6651"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6651"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}