{"id":6635,"date":"2017-01-28T16:07:10","date_gmt":"2017-01-28T16:07:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=6635"},"modified":"2017-01-28T16:07:10","modified_gmt":"2017-01-28T16:07:10","slug":"sp-500-weekly-earnings-update-year-over-year-expected-growth-now-8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=6635","title":{"rendered":"SP 500 Weekly Earnings Update: Year-over-year &#8220;expected&#8221; growth now +8%"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Long-time readers know this blog tracks the the year-over-year growth rate of the forward SP 500 estimate, which dollar estimate is given weekly by Thomson Reuters I\/B\/E\/S, &#8220;This Week in Earnings&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>The year-over-year growth rate is my calculation for readers, and it really represents a kind-of &#8220;forward SP 500 earnings&#8221; curve. (That sounds fancy, and rather Wall Street&#8217;ish, but the forward 4-quarter estimate simply tracks the dollar changes in the SP 500 earnings estimate over the next 4 quarters, which is currently Q1 &#8217;17 &#8211; Q4 &#8217;17.)<\/p>\n<p>Here is the this week&#8217;s data:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>Forward 4-quarter SP 500 earnings estimate:<\/strong><\/em> $132.91 down slightly from last week&#8217;s $132.93<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>P.E ratio:<\/strong><\/em> 17.3(x)<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>PEG ratio:<\/strong><\/em> 2.16(x)<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>SP 500 earnings yield:<\/strong><\/em> 5.79% down from last week&#8217;s 5.85%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Year-over-year growth rate of the forward estimate:<\/strong><\/em> +8%, up from last week&#8217;s +6.75%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Here is the trend in the y\/y growth rate of the SP 500 forward estimate, a statistic all but ignored by the mainstream financial media:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>1\/27\/17:<\/strong><\/em> +8% ($132.91)<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>12\/30\/16:<\/strong><\/em> +5.03% ($128.57)<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>11\/25\/16:<\/strong><\/em> +4.03% ($128.56)<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>10\/28\/16:<\/strong><\/em> +3.74% ($128.97)<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>9\/30\/16:<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0-1.18% ($125.09)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>This blog has been tracking the forward estimate and its year-over-year growth rate since the year 2000. We&#8217;ve just finished a 24-month period from late 2014 to late 2016, where the y\/y growth rate fell from the 9% range, to a low of -3% in early 2016, all due to the Energy sector drag.<\/p>\n<p>Personally I&#8217;d love to see y\/t growth rate in the forward estimate of 10% &#8211; that will be the highest &#8220;expected&#8221; growth rate in a very long time. The last time the SP 500 earnings grew 15%, was 2011, a year when the SP 500 suffered a 20% correction from May, 2011 through early October, 2011.<\/p>\n<p>What is truly interesting about the data is that &#8211; even prior to the US Presidential election &#8211; the SP 500 forward earnings estimate was starting to rise rapidly.<\/p>\n<p>There are several earnings-related articles in the pipeline, but year-end client lunches, dinners, meetings, etc. have kept the calendar full and the writing to a minimum.<\/p>\n<p>Look for another article tomorrow.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for reading&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Long-time readers know this blog tracks the the year-over-year growth rate of the forward SP 500 estimate, which dollar estimate&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[179,91],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6635","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forward-sp-500-earnings-curve","category-weekly-earnings-update"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6635","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6635"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6635\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6637,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6635\/revisions\/6637"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6635"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6635"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6635"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}