{"id":6591,"date":"2017-01-01T20:37:44","date_gmt":"2017-01-01T20:37:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=6591"},"modified":"2017-01-01T20:37:44","modified_gmt":"2017-01-01T20:37:44","slug":"weekly-earnings-update-can-q4-16-earnings-top-q3-16","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=6591","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Earnings Update: Can Q4 ’16 Earnings Top Q3 ’16 ?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Here<\/a> was the forecast for Q3 ’16 at the start of Q4 ’16. Per Thomson Reuters, which is my primary earnings data provider, actual Q3 ’16 earnings grew 4.3%, but Ex-Energy, SP 500 earnings grew 7.9%.<\/p>\n

Pretty good growth.<\/p>\n

For readers, the important aspect to Q4 ’16’s earnings is that the Energy Sector is no longer a drag on the SP 500 and that SP 500 earnings and revenue will look more “normal” relative to the last 10 – 15 years, than the period from late 2014, through Q3 ’16.<\/p>\n

Here is a table (see below) from David Aurelio of Thomson sent in late November ’16. Note how the influence of Energy is ending with Q3 ’16.<\/p>\n

What’s interesting to me looking at the data again is to note how the revenue growth slowly ebbed as we moved away from the Financial\/Mortgage\/Housing Crisis bounce, moving into 2011, 2012, etc. If the President-elect and Congress can manage to NOT fritter away the pro-economic-growth opportunity American voters have provided them, investors could see a sustained window of healthy, and above average (at least in terms of the last 8 years) earnings and revenue growth.<\/p>\n

Much can go wrong, simply due to President-elect Trump being the “known unknown” and how he will actually come down on critical issues, but the Cabinet appointments continue to indicate a very pro-economic-growth, pro-business and ultimately pro-market tendency.<\/p>\n

We’ll know pretty soon. (Readers are owed an earnings update on the Health Care sector given that it was the only sector in ’16 with a negative return. Need to post that in the next few days.)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
S&P 500: Y\/Y Blended Growth Rates<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Source: Thomson Reuters I\/B\/E\/S<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0<\/strong><\/td>\nEarnings<\/strong><\/td>\nRevenue<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Period<\/strong><\/td>\nS&P 500<\/strong><\/td>\nEx-Energy<\/strong><\/td>\nS&P 500<\/strong><\/td>\nEx-Energy<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2018Q2E<\/td>\n11.1%<\/td>\n10.1%<\/td>\n4.4%<\/td>\n4.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2018Q1E<\/td>\n11.6%<\/td>\n10.2%<\/td>\n5.4%<\/td>\n4.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2017Q4E<\/td>\n14.3%<\/td>\n11.7%<\/td>\n5.6%<\/td>\n3.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2017Q3E<\/td>\n9.7%<\/td>\n6.5%<\/td>\n6.0%<\/td>\n3.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2017Q2E<\/td>\n11.9%<\/td>\n8.0%<\/td>\n6.1%<\/td>\n3.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2017Q1E<\/td>\n14.1%<\/td>\n9.7%<\/td>\n8.0%<\/td>\n5.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2016Q4E<\/td>\n6.2%<\/td>\n6.2%<\/td>\n4.7%<\/td>\n4.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2016Q3E<\/td>\n4.2%<\/td>\n7.9%<\/td>\n2.6%<\/td>\n4.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2016Q2<\/td>\n-2.1%<\/td>\n2.2%<\/td>\n-0.4%<\/td>\n2.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2016Q1<\/td>\n-5.0%<\/td>\n0.4%<\/td>\n-1.7%<\/td>\n1.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2015Q4<\/td>\n-2.9%<\/td>\n3.4%<\/td>\n-3.5%<\/td>\n0.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2015Q3<\/td>\n-0.8%<\/td>\n6.3%<\/td>\n-4.4%<\/td>\n1.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2015Q2<\/td>\n1.3%<\/td>\n8.9%<\/td>\n-3.5%<\/td>\n1.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2015Q1<\/td>\n2.2%<\/td>\n10.3%<\/td>\n-3.1%<\/td>\n2.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2014Q4<\/td>\n7.0%<\/td>\n10.5%<\/td>\n2.1%<\/td>\n4.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2014Q3<\/td>\n10.3%<\/td>\n10.3%<\/td>\n4.1%<\/td>\n5.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2014Q2<\/td>\n8.6%<\/td>\n7.5%<\/td>\n4.7%<\/td>\n4.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2014Q1<\/td>\n5.6%<\/td>\n6.5%<\/td>\n2.9%<\/td>\n3.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2013Q4<\/td>\n9.9%<\/td>\n12.6%<\/td>\n1.0%<\/td>\n1.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2013Q3<\/td>\n6.0%<\/td>\n8.0%<\/td>\n3.4%<\/td>\n3.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2013Q2<\/td>\n4.9%<\/td>\n6.7%<\/td>\n2.2%<\/td>\n3.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2013Q1<\/td>\n5.4%<\/td>\n6.1%<\/td>\n0.0%<\/td>\n3.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2012Q4<\/td>\n6.2%<\/td>\n6.2%<\/td>\n3.6%<\/td>\n6.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2012Q3<\/td>\n0.1%<\/td>\n2.9%<\/td>\n-0.8%<\/td>\n2.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2012Q2<\/td>\n8.3%<\/td>\n13.3%<\/td>\n0.9%<\/td>\n3.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2012Q1<\/td>\n8.1%<\/td>\n9.2%<\/td>\n5.0%<\/td>\n5.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2011Q4<\/td>\n9.2%<\/td>\n8.6%<\/td>\n6.9%<\/td>\n5.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2011Q3<\/td>\n18.0%<\/td>\n13.0%<\/td>\n11.1%<\/td>\n8.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2011Q2<\/td>\n12.1%<\/td>\n8.3%<\/td>\n13.6%<\/td>\n10.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2011Q1<\/td>\n18.9%<\/td>\n16.4%<\/td>\n9.4%<\/td>\n6.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2010Q4<\/td>\n37.0%<\/td>\n36.3%<\/td>\n8.2%<\/td>\n6.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2010Q3<\/td>\n31.2%<\/td>\n31.0%<\/td>\n7.5%<\/td>\n6.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2010Q2<\/td>\n38.8%<\/td>\n33.4%<\/td>\n8.8%<\/td>\n6.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2010Q1<\/td>\n58.3%<\/td>\n57.4%<\/td>\n11.2%<\/td>\n8.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2009Q4<\/td>\n205.6%<\/td>\n414.6%<\/td>\n7.9%<\/td>\n8.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2009Q3<\/td>\n-14.7%<\/td>\n0.9%<\/td>\n-10.0%<\/td>\n-2.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2009Q2<\/td>\n-27.3%<\/td>\n-17.6%<\/td>\n-14.2%<\/td>\n-6.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2009Q1<\/td>\n-35.5%<\/td>\n-30.1%<\/td>\n-11.4%<\/td>\n-5.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2008Q4<\/td>\n-67.0%<\/td>\n-77.6%<\/td>\n-9.5%<\/td>\n-7.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2008Q3<\/td>\n-19.0%<\/td>\n-32.2%<\/td>\n8.1%<\/td>\n2.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2008Q2<\/td>\n-22.1%<\/td>\n-29.7%<\/td>\n10.1%<\/td>\n4.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2008Q1<\/td>\n-17.5%<\/td>\n-24.2%<\/td>\n7.6%<\/td>\n3.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

Source: Thomson Reuters<\/p>\n

Expected Q4 ’16 Earnings by sector ranked from fastest to slowest expected growth<\/strong><\/em>:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • Financial’s +15.4%<\/li>\n
  • Utilities +10.5%<\/li>\n
  • Technology +7.8%<\/li>\n
  • Consumer Staples +6.1%<\/li>\n
  • SP 500 +6.1%<\/li>\n
  • Health Care +5.7%<\/li>\n
  • Materials +5%<\/li>\n
  • Energy +4.9%<\/li>\n
  • Consumer Discretionary +2.5%<\/li>\n
  • Telco -0.7%<\/li>\n
  • Real Estate -0.8%<\/li>\n
  • Industrials -3.7%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Source: Thomson TWIE dated 12\/30\/16<\/p>\n

    Two surprises: why are utilities earnings so strong and why is Industrial earnings growth so weak ?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Here was the forecast for Q3 ’16 at the start of Q4 ’16. Per Thomson Reuters, which is my primary…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[120,98,114,54,91],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6591","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-industrials","category-sector-earnings-growth-estimates","category-sp-500-revenue-growth","category-utilities","category-weekly-earnings-update"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6591","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6591"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6591\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6594,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6591\/revisions\/6594"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6591"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6591"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6591"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}