{"id":6319,"date":"2016-09-20T18:14:57","date_gmt":"2016-09-20T18:14:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=6319"},"modified":"2016-09-20T18:14:57","modified_gmt":"2016-09-20T18:14:57","slug":"how-are-sp-500-earnings-expected-to-change-between-q2-16-and-q3-16","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=6319","title":{"rendered":"How are SP 500 Earnings Expected to Change Between Q2 &#8217;16 and Q3 &#8217;16 ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>With just 10 days left in the 3rd quarter, 2016, here is how SP 500 earnings changed after the Street saw their Q2 &#8217;16 financial results: The important consideration here is that &#8211; normally &#8211; Street estimates hit their nadir within the last 2 weeks of the prior quarter, and the first two weeks of that reporting quarter and then typically increase as the actual quarter is reported.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Consumer Disc: +14.2% today vs 9.0% on July 1 for a 520 basis point improvement<\/li>\n<li>Consumer Spls: 1% today vs -1.7% as of July 1 for 270 basis point improvement<\/li>\n<li>Energy: -84.9% today, versus -78.5% as of July 1 for a 640 basis point deterioration<\/li>\n<li>Financials: -3.8% today, versus -3.6% as of July 1 for a 20 basis point deterioration (this is &#8220;ex Real estate&#8221;)<\/li>\n<li>Health Care: +7.5% today vs +4.5% as of July 1 for a 300 basis point improvement<\/li>\n<li>Industrial&#8217;s: +3.1% today versus 4.2% as of July 1 for a 110 basis point deterioration<\/li>\n<li>Basic Materials: -6.9% today versus -10.6% as of July 1 for a 370 basis point improvement<\/li>\n<li>Technology: +1.7% today versus -6.0% as of July 1 for a 770 basis point improvement<\/li>\n<li>Telecom: -1.2% today versus -0.9% as of July 1 for a 30 basis point deterioration<\/li>\n<li>Utilities: +4.6% today versus +2.1% as of July 1 for a 250 basis point improvement<\/li>\n<li>Real Estate: -12.8% today vs -11.7% as of July 1 for a 110 basis point deterioration<\/li>\n<li>SP 500: -3.8% today vs -3.6% as of July 1 for a 20 basis point deterioration<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Let&#8217;s rank the 2nd quarter results by greatest improvement to worst deterioration<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Technology: +770 bp&#8217;s<\/li>\n<li>Cons Disc: +520 bp&#8217;s<\/li>\n<li>Basic Mat: +370 bp&#8217;s<\/li>\n<li>Health Care: +300 bp&#8217;s<\/li>\n<li>Cons Spls: +270 bp&#8217;s<\/li>\n<li>Ute&#8217;s: +250 bp&#8217;s<\/li>\n<li>Financial&#8217;s: -20 bp&#8217;s<\/li>\n<li>Telecom: -30 bp&#8217;s<\/li>\n<li>Real Estate: -110 bp&#8217;s<\/li>\n<li>Energy: -640 bp&#8217;s<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>How is Q3 &#8217;16 looking ? Q3 &#8217;16 could be the first positive quarter of SP 500 earnings growth since Q2 &#8217;15<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Basic Mat: +7% expected growth as of 9\/20\/16<\/li>\n<li>Health Care: +5.6%<\/li>\n<li>Technology +4.2% (still one of the only sectors to see Q3 &#8217;16 estimates improve since July 1 &#8217;16)<\/li>\n<li>Cons Disc: +3.5%<\/li>\n<li>Cons Spls: +3.3%<\/li>\n<li>Utilities: +2.5%<\/li>\n<li>Real estate: +1.4%<\/li>\n<li>Financials: +1.0%<\/li>\n<li>Industrial&#8217;s -2.5%<\/li>\n<li>Telco: -3.4%<\/li>\n<li>Energy: -65.2%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Consumer Discretionary is expecting the biggest change in Q3 &#8217;16, growing just 3.5% after printing +14.2% in Q2 &#8217;16. Industrial&#8217;s don&#8217;t look good either although the numbers are still small. Energy is the big wild card. There are still basically 3 &#8211; 4 weeks until we hear from the first companies about Q3 &#8217;16 so these numbers will change.<\/p>\n<p>It is worth repeating the Technology sector is seeing positive revisions to the quarter &#8211; very unusual and a good sign. Tech should be strong through Spring &#8217;17.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With just 10 days left in the 3rd quarter, 2016, here is how SP 500 earnings changed after the Street&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[89],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6319","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-earnings-estimate-revisions"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6319","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6319"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6319\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6324,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6319\/revisions\/6324"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6319"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6319"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6319"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}