{"id":6284,"date":"2016-09-08T13:21:48","date_gmt":"2016-09-08T13:21:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=6284"},"modified":"2016-09-08T13:21:48","modified_gmt":"2016-09-08T13:21:48","slug":"a-longer-look-at-annual-sp-500-earnings-numbers-paying-attention-to-2017","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=6284","title":{"rendered":"A Longer Look at Annual SP 500 Earnings Numbers, Paying Attention to 2017"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Occasionally it helps to take a step back and look at the annual SP 500 earnings data:<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>2017:<\/strong><\/em> $134.26 &#8211; (est) 14% SP 500 earnings growth expected next year<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>2016:<\/strong><\/em> $117.94 &#8211; est. Another year of 0% &#8211; 1% growth expected this year. Full-year 2016 EPS will be known by mid-March &#8217;17<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>2015:<\/strong><\/em> $117.46 &#8211; actual &#8211; -1% growth in 2015<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>2014:<\/strong><\/em> $118.78 &#8211; actual &#8211; +8% growth in 2014<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>2013:<\/strong><\/em> $109.68 &#8211; actual &#8211; +6% growth in 2013<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>2012:<\/strong><\/em> $103.80 &#8211; actual &#8211; +6% growth in 2012<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>2011:<\/em><\/strong> $97.82 &#8211; actual &#8211; +15% growth in 2011<\/p>\n<p>A couple thoughts:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Post-2008 bank charges, both litigation and Justice penalties severely hampered the Financial sector&#8217;s earnings growth, which impacted the SP 500 overall.<\/li>\n<li>Investors haven&#8217;t seen a year of double-digit earnings growth since 2011, and that was Energy-driven.<\/li>\n<li>Investors are looking at two years of flat SP 500 earnings growth in 2015 and 2016, thanks primarily to collapse of Energy sector&#8217;s earnings.<\/li>\n<li>During this last 5 &#8211; 6 year period, HealthCare and Consumer Discretionary have both put up decent growth, as has Technology.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em><strong>What&#8217;s up with 2017 ?\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>It is the 2017 estimate that began to <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=5953\">get my attention earlier this year<\/a>, when I wasn&#8217;t seeing the typical downward revision pressure that usually happens throughout a calendar year.<\/p>\n<p>To keep this short and sweet, here is the progression on the full-year 2017 SP 500 EPS estimate:<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>9\/2\/16:<\/strong><\/em> $134.26<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>8\/5\/16:<\/strong><\/em> $134.51<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>7\/1\/16:<\/strong><\/em> $135.28<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>6\/3\/16:<\/strong><\/em> $135.67<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>5\/6\/16:<\/strong><\/em> $135.42<\/p>\n<p><strong>4\/1\/16:<\/strong> $136.44<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>3\/4\/216:<\/strong><\/em> $137.12<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>2\/5\/16:<\/strong><\/em> $138.79<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>1\/1\/16:<\/strong><\/em> $142.82<\/p>\n<p>The key takeaway from this is that, since late March, early April &#8217;16, the 2017 SP 500 EPS estimate has eroded very little, which should be giving readers more confidence that the SP 500 in 2017 will see double-digit earnings growth next year.<\/p>\n<p>With Q3 &#8217;16 earnings results some companies will start to give 2017 guidance. However the great majority of 2017 guidance will come in January &#8211; February &#8217;17, with Q4 &#8217;16 earnings.\u00a0However most analysts will know by January 1 &#8217;17 within a reasonable degree of confidence, how their coverage, sectors and companies will perform next year.<\/p>\n<p>The annual EPS estimate&#8217;s are just one metric. The real &#8220;tell&#8221; for me here after looking at this data for 15 years is that the rate of deterioration for next year is very small relative to &#8220;typical&#8221; or standard rates of deterioration.<\/p>\n<p>I still think much depends on Energy&#8217;s revenue and earnings growth for 2017. It is almost inconceivable to think Energy will do worse in 2017 than the first half of 2016.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Occasionally it helps to take a step back and look at the annual SP 500 earnings data: 2017: $134.26 &#8211;&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[137,3,89,171,95,9,93],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6284","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-crude-oil-energy","category-earnings","category-earnings-estimate-revisions","category-energy-etfs-xle","category-energy-sector","category-sp-500","category-sp-500-forecasts"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6284","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6284"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6284\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6292,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6284\/revisions\/6292"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6284"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6284"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6284"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}