{"id":6060,"date":"2016-07-06T21:19:35","date_gmt":"2016-07-06T21:19:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=6060"},"modified":"2016-07-06T21:19:35","modified_gmt":"2016-07-06T21:19:35","slug":"q4-16-and-2017-expected-sector-earnings-growth-rates-seeing-upward-revisions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=6060","title":{"rendered":"Q4 &#8217;16 and 2017 Expected Sector Earnings Growth Rates Seeing Upward Revisions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>An oft-used analogy for many circumstances, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.shmoop.com\/waiting-for-godot\/summary.html\">&#8220;Waiting For Godot&#8221;<\/a> seems the perfect analogy for the anticipated faster earnings growth from the SP 500, which we have yet to see.<\/p>\n<p>My apologies to all, since I haven&#8217;t read the play since high school or college English class.<\/p>\n<p>However, looking at the numbers for Q4 &#8217;16 and 2017, I remain a firm believer that SP 500 earnings growth is poised to accelerate.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Q4 &#8217;16 sector earnings estimates<\/strong><\/em> per the Thomson Data looks particularly intriguing. Here are the sectors ranked by year-over-year earnings growth, and more importantly the change since April 1 &#8217;16:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Basic Mat: +24%, vs +22% on April 1 &#8217;16<\/li>\n<li>Financial&#8217;s: +17.2% vs +21.7% as of April 1 &#8217;16<\/li>\n<li>Utilities: +15.6%, vs +8.9% as of April 1 &#8217;16<\/li>\n<li>Energy: +12.4% vs +11.1% as of April 1 &#8217;16<\/li>\n<li>Cons Disc: +10.6% vs. +10.4% as of April 1 &#8217;16<\/li>\n<li>Cons Spls: +9.9% vs +8.6% as of April 1 &#8217;16<\/li>\n<li>Health Care: +9.8% vs +10.2% as of April 1 &#8217;16<\/li>\n<li>Technology: +4.2% vs +6.7% as of April 1 &#8217;16<\/li>\n<li>Industrial&#8217;s: +3.9% vs +4.4% as of April 1 &#8217;16<\/li>\n<li>Telecom: +2.3%, vs +2.5% as of April 1 &#8217;16<\/li>\n<li>SP 500: +9.5% vs +10.6% as of April 1 &#8217;16<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>What is unusual about these numbers is something that has been explained on this blog in the past and Cam Hui, author of the Humble Student blog explained this weekend <a href=\"http:\/\/humblestudentofthemarkets.blogspot.com\/2016\/07\/how-to-beat-wall-street-analysts-at.html?utm_content=buffer79973&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_campaign=buffer\">here<\/a>. Analyst revisions by far and away are typically negative until the quarter starts, and then the revisions are uniformly positive.<\/p>\n<p>The point is that &#8211; for Energy, Basic Materials and the Consumer Sectors, to see upward revisions now &#8211; well in advance of the quarter and to see expected earnings growth above estimates as we get closer to reporting dates, is very important and relevant info.<\/p>\n<p>For 2017, as it stands today, five of the 10 SP 500 sectors are seeing upward revisions to earnings growth already, and we are still 6 months away from the start of 2017.<\/p>\n<p>What I&#8217;ll be looking for as we move through Q2 &#8217;16 earnings season is to see Q4 &#8217;16 continue to hold its current 9% growth rate also watch and see if the two largest SP 500 sectors &#8211; Financials and Technology &#8211; start to see better revisions.<\/p>\n<p>Readers will get another post tomorrow. Lots of other parties starting to comment on SP 500 earnings. We&#8217;ll have a look at some of the articles and some Thomson earnings data.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>An oft-used analogy for many circumstances, &#8220;Waiting For Godot&#8221; seems the perfect analogy for the anticipated faster earnings growth from&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[98,144],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6060","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sector-earnings-growth-estimates","category-standard-poors-earnings-data"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6060","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6060"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6060\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6063,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6060\/revisions\/6063"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6060"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6060"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6060"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}