{"id":5945,"date":"2016-05-15T14:28:36","date_gmt":"2016-05-15T14:28:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=5945"},"modified":"2016-05-15T14:28:36","modified_gmt":"2016-05-15T14:28:36","slug":"sp-500-weekly-earnings-update-dissecting-the-sp-500-by-various-sectors-and-stocks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=5945","title":{"rendered":"SP 500 Weekly Earnings Update: Dissecting the SP 500 by Various Sectors and Stocks"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>First <a href=\"http:\/\/www.factset.com\/insight\/2016\/05\/eps-results-surprise-sales-disappoint\">this article<\/a> from Factset on Thursday, I thought was a decent summary on Q1 &#8217;16 financial results YTD.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Thomson data &#8220;by the numbers&#8221;:\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The forward 4-quarter estimate fell to $123 from $123.01 last week<\/li>\n<li>The P.E ratio as of Friday&#8217;s close is 16.6(x)<\/li>\n<li>The PEG ratio at 21(x) is way elevated given the very low forward growth rate and continues to be less meaningful.<\/li>\n<li>The SP 500 earnings yield is back over 6%, to 6.01%, versus last week&#8217;s 5.98%<\/li>\n<li>The y\/y growth rate of the forward estimate increased to +0.78% versus last week&#8217;s +0.69%, and maddeningly remains locked in this range.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em><strong>Analysis:<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0In my opinion, the year-over-year growth rate of the forward 4-quarter estimate remains one of few leading indicators around SP 500 earnings that has some forecasting ability. That growth rate remains stubbornly locked in the -2% to +2% range for over a year now, which neatly explains why the SP 500 is now flat over the last 18 months.<\/p>\n<p>Here is a fascinating dissection of the SP 500 earnings &#8220;attribution&#8221; from David Aurelio of Thomson Reuters sent to me Saturday, May 14th, 2016.<\/p>\n<p>What surprised me is the SP 500 &#8220;ex Consumer Discretionary&#8221; a sector with a 15% market cap weighting in the SP 500 which shows the strength of not just Amazon (AMZN), which is &#8211; from what I&#8217;ve read about 11% of the sector&#8217;s market cap &#8211; but Ford and GM, as David pointed out in an email. Saw what you want, the consumer seems to be strong, they are just buying differently.<\/p>\n<p>Also note, the SP 500 &#8220;ex-Energy&#8221;, which is showing positive earnings growth, and supports my thought that Q1 &#8217;16 will be the bottom for SP 500 earnings declines.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, note &#8220;Ex-Energy and ex-Apple&#8221;: in terms of market cap weighting Apple is still about 4.5% of the SP 500 and Energy roughly 7% market cap weight, so summing the two, readers have about 11% &#8211; 12% of the SP 500 right there.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<table width=\"1271\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"200\"><strong>Y\/Y Blended Earnings Growth<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"64\"><strong>1Q13<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"65\"><strong>2Q13<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><strong>3Q13<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><strong>4Q13<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><strong>1Q14<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><strong>2Q14<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><strong>3Q14<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><strong>4Q14<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><strong>1Q15<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><strong>2Q15<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><strong>3Q15<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><strong>4Q15<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><strong>1Q16<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"64\"><strong>2Q16<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><strong>3Q16<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><strong>4Q16<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"200\">AAPL<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">-18.0%<\/td>\n<td width=\"65\">-19.8%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">-4.7%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">5.0%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">15.2%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">20.0%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">20.3%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">47.8%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">40.4%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">44.5%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">38.0%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">38.0%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">-18.5%<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">-24.6%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">-15.2%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">-3.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"200\">AMZN<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">-35.7%<\/td>\n<td width=\"65\">-300.0%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">142.9%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">27.8%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">18.6%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">-11.8%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">-152.2%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">480.3%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">456.6%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">127.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"200\">S&amp;P 500<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">5.4%<\/td>\n<td width=\"65\">4.9%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">6.0%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">9.9%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">5.6%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">8.6%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">10.3%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">7.0%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">2.2%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">1.3%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">-0.8%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">-0.8%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">-5.4%<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">-3.4%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">2.6%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">9.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"200\">S&amp;P 500 Ex-CnDisc<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">5.1%<\/td>\n<td width=\"65\">4.6%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">4.2%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">10.0%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">5.3%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">8.7%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">11.9%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">6.1%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">1.6%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">0.1%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">-2.5%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">-2.5%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">-8.3%<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">-5.1%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">1.5%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">9.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"200\">S&amp;P 500 Ex-Energy<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">6.1%<\/td>\n<td width=\"65\">6.7%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">8.0%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">12.6%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">6.5%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">7.5%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">10.3%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">10.5%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">10.4%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">8.9%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">6.3%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">6.3%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">0.0%<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">0.5%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">5.5%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">9.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"200\">S&amp;P 500 Ex-Tech<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">7.1%<\/td>\n<td width=\"65\">6.9%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">5.2%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">9.7%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">4.7%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">7.2%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">10.3%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">4.0%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">0.5%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">0.2%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">-2.2%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">-2.2%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">-5.6%<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">-2.8%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">2.5%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">11.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"200\">S&amp;P 500 Ex-AAPL<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">6.6%<\/td>\n<td width=\"65\">5.8%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">6.4%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">10.1%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">5.3%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">8.3%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">10.1%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">5.0%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">0.7%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">0.1%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">-1.9%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">-1.9%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">-4.7%<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">-2.6%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">3.3%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">10.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"200\">S&amp;P 500 Ex-AMZN<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">5.4%<\/td>\n<td width=\"65\">4.9%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">5.9%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">9.8%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">5.6%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">8.6%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">10.3%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">7.0%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">2.3%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">1.2%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">-1.0%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">-1.0%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">-5.6%<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">-3.6%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">2.4%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">9.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"200\">S&amp;P 500 Ex-Energy\u00a0 &amp; AAPL<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">7.6%<\/td>\n<td width=\"65\">7.9%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">8.5%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">13.1%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">6.1%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">7.2%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">10.0%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">8.5%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">9.0%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">7.8%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">5.2%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">5.2%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">1.1%<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">1.6%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">6.5%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">10.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"200\">CnDisc<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">8.4%<\/td>\n<td width=\"65\">7.5%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">22.6%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">8.4%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">8.8%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">7.5%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">-1.7%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">14.6%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">8.1%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">12.3%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">14.5%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">14.5%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">22.7%<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">10.8%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">11.3%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">11.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"200\">CnDisc Ex-AMZN<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">8.7%<\/td>\n<td width=\"65\">7.5%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">21.4%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">7.8%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">8.7%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">8.0%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">-2.8%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">14.8%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">8.9%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">11.4%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">12.4%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">12.4%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">20.6%<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">9.5%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">10.3%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">9.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"200\">CnDisc + AAPL<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">-1.0%<\/td>\n<td width=\"65\">0.2%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">15.9%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">7.3%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">10.6%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">10.0%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">2.5%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">24.9%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">17.4%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">19.3%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">19.8%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">19.8%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">8.0%<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">1.3%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">4.2%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">5.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"200\">Tech<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">-1.2%<\/td>\n<td width=\"65\">-3.2%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">9.6%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">10.3%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">10.0%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">15.3%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">10.3%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">18.0%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">9.7%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">6.4%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">6.1%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">6.1%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">-4.6%<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">-6.3%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">2.7%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">4.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"200\">Tech Ex- AAPL<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">3.9%<\/td>\n<td width=\"65\">0.4%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">12.7%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">11.9%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">8.7%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">14.4%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">8.5%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">9.7%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">2.1%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">-0.7%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">-0.1%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">-0.1%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">0.1%<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">-1.5%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">7.5%<\/td>\n<td width=\"67\">7.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"200\">Source: Thomson Reuters I\/B\/E\/S<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"65\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"64\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"67\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Conclusion:<\/strong><\/em> readers should scan quickly the &#8220;1Q &#8217;16&#8221; and &#8220;2Q &#8217;16&#8221; columns for year-over-year growth rates. I continue to think a bottom is forming in terms of SP 500 earnings growth, but the SP 500&#8217;s continued range-bound trading and lack of a breakout above 2,135 &#8211; 2,150, tells me the market is unconvinced. Roughly 450 of the SP 500 have now reported Q1 &#8217;16 and the retailer reports as of April 30 &#8217;16 end, aren&#8217;t that encouraging either. Walmart (WMT) reports this week, which represents the &#8220;official&#8221; end of earnings season.<\/p>\n<p>Personally, I&#8217;d like to see the US dollar continue to weaken (has rallied most of May) and the Energy and commodity sectors continue to bounce.<\/p>\n<p>The best trades for clients this year have been the IYE\/XLE, the EEM\/VWO, and the EWZ (Brazil) ETF. (Long all ETF&#8217;s in many accounts.)<\/p>\n<p>These positions can change at any time, but these ETF&#8217;s represent the bigger picture of weaker dollar, rising commodity prices, and &#8211; well &#8211; Brazil was a catchweight for just about everything that didn&#8217;t work in the last 5 years (i.e. energy, commodity, currency, corrupt government, and the hope of the Olympics &#8217;16).<\/p>\n<p>The Energy and commodity charts are at a critical juncture. It merits a separate post tonight or tomorrow.<\/p>\n<p>2016 has been all about rotation &#8211; &#8220;from the worst (of 2015) to the first (in 2016)&#8221; &#8211; and for a healthy market, this rotation needs to continue.<\/p>\n<p>Back with more shortly.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>First this article from Factset on Thursday, I thought was a decent summary on Q1 &#8217;16 financial results YTD. Thomson&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[152,90,175,156,137,171,92,1,126,91],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5945","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-amazon","category-apple-aapl","category-brazil-ewz","category-commodities","category-crude-oil-energy","category-energy-etfs-xle","category-fwd-4-qtr-growth-rate-sp-500","category-uncategorized","category-us-dollar","category-weekly-earnings-update"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5945","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5945"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5945\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5951,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5945\/revisions\/5951"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5945"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5945"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5945"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}