Thanks to Thomson’s David Aurelio (and Greg Harrison) for updating this data today.<\/p>\n
3 months ago, we posted to this blog SP 500 earnings and revenue estimates “Ex-Energy”.<\/p>\n
Today, Thomson provided the updated numbers here:\u00a0FC – SP500exEnergy5516<\/a><\/p>\n The bottom line is that while Q4 ’16 came in a little better than what the numbers were on 2\/5\/16, Q1 ’16’s numbers are looking a little worse.<\/p>\n Coming into this week, just 16 of the 38 companies in the SP 500 denoted as “Energy” companies had reported Q1 ’16 earnings.<\/p>\n I was looking at the Exxon forward EPS and revenue estimates last night and they continue to be revised higher since their 4\/29\/16 report. Chevron however saw negative revisions to forward estimates, thus the two giants could be negating each other in terms of the sector effect.<\/p>\n Analysis \/ conclusion: <\/strong><\/em>Both the March ’16 blog posts (here<\/a> and here<\/a>) thought that Q1 ’16 could be the bottom for SP 500 earnings declines and I continue to think that is the case. Unfortunately, we will only know with 100% certainty in hindsight, thanks to SP 500 earnings being a lagging indicator, which is why I put such a premium on the 4-quarter forward EPS number and its y\/y growth rate and the forward quarterly estimates.<\/p>\n The Energy sector is bottoming, both in terms of revenue and earnings growth. Earnings and revenue growth may not accelerate like they have in the past, but I do think that Q3 and Q4 ’16 will show better earnings growth.<\/p>\n For the SP 500 “ex-Energy”, I also think the bottom is in, but with a little less confidence since Technology and Financials are the two biggest sector weights. Technology, ex-Apple, (per Thomson was) +4% y\/y earnings growth as of last week while including Apple, Tech sector earnings fell roughly 8.5% y\/y. The Financial sector is still a drag on the SP 500 earnings growth for another quarter or two.<\/p>\n