{"id":5273,"date":"2015-10-17T14:44:12","date_gmt":"2015-10-17T14:44:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=5273"},"modified":"2015-10-17T14:44:12","modified_gmt":"2015-10-17T14:44:12","slug":"sp-500-forward-4-quarter-estimate-compares-get-easier-from-mid-october-15","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=5273","title":{"rendered":"SP 500 Forward 4-Quarter Estimate Compare&#8217;s Get Easier from Mid-October &#8217;15"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Regular readers know that Thomson Reuters &#8220;forward 4-quarter estimate&#8221; for the SP 500 is something that has been tracked on this site since the blog began in 2012.<\/p>\n<p>The forward 4-quarter estimate as of October 17, 2014 was $129.34 and it has grown $10.40 or 9.5% since mid-October, 2013.<\/p>\n<p>It has been uncomfortable to watch the negative y\/y growth of the forward estimate, which started in May &#8217;15, but the Energy and Basic Material&#8217;s sectors drag on the forward estimate also had to be considered when examining the data.<\/p>\n<p>Here is the point of the blog post: from this week forward, the year-over-year growth of the forward estimate starts to lap easier &#8220;forward growth rate&#8221; comparisons:<\/p>\n<p>Here is the data:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>6\/13\/14: $122.96, y\/y growth = 8.51%<\/li>\n<li>7\/18\/14: $127.07, y\/y growth = 8.57%<\/li>\n<li>8\/15\/14: $126.58: y\/y growth = 9.40%<\/li>\n<li>9\/19\/14: $125.79 y\/y growth = 8.56%<\/li>\n<li>10\/17\/14: $129.34, y\/y growth = 9.49%<\/li>\n<li>11\/17\/14: $126.64, y\/y growth = 7.54%<\/li>\n<li>12\/19\/14: $123.48 y\/y growth = 5.71%<\/li>\n<li>1\/16\/15: $124.91, y\/y growth = 4.77%<\/li>\n<li>2\/13\/15: $120.83, y\/y growth = 1.35%<\/li>\n<li>3\/13\/15: $119.78, y\/y growth = 0.82%<\/li>\n<li>4\/17\/15: $123.49, y\/y growth = 0.62%<\/li>\n<li>5\/15\/15: $122.23, y\/y growth = -0.51%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The forward 4-quarter estimate for the SP 500 has been negative ever since mid-May &#8217;15. No question the decline in crude oil was starting to be perceived as something other than temporary, and the US dollar was starting a 22% ramp versus the euro.<\/p>\n<p>While readers might consider this ultimate data navel-gazing, I think the &#8220;forward 4-quarter estimate&#8221; has some analytical importance. It is a weekly metric that &#8211; for better or worse &#8211; gives readers the best look at what the 1-year forward SP 500 EPS earnings looks like, and it&#8217;s updated every week.<\/p>\n<p>Near the depths of the selloff in late August &#8217;15, <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=5090\">this blog post <\/a>was written about the Energy sector and the International&#8217;s beginning to lap easier comparisons in Q4 &#8217;15.<\/p>\n<p>Bespoke had an interesting line in their weekly Bespoke Report published Friday night, 10\/16\/15: &#8220;Since the rally began on September 29th, the bounce higher has been led by stocks that prior to this point in the year had been struggling significantly&#8230;.Over the last couple of weeks, though, we&#8217;ve seen the international stocks outperform domestics significantly.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Per Bespoke, SP 500 stocks that generate more than 50% of their revenue outside the US, are up an average 9.38% since 9\/29. Conversely, stocks that generate all their revenue from within the US are up an average 5.63%.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Analysis \/ conclusion:<\/strong>\u00a0<\/em>The sector rotation happening within the SP 500 could be more involved than many think. For me Apple. and biotech still hold the key to the market leadership.\u00a0\u00a0I&#8217;m more confident that Apple can re-take its 200-day moving average, than biotech, so if biotech reports solid EPS and revenue growth and the sector continues to languish, the bid in Emerging Markets, and Non-US large-cap stocks within the SP 500 might have some traction. (Long AAPL, missed the biotech bull market.)<\/p>\n<p>The expectation too is that sometime in the next 6 &#8211; 12 weeks, the SP 500&#8217;s &#8220;forward 4-quarter&#8221; estimate starts to turn positive again.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Regular readers know that Thomson Reuters &#8220;forward 4-quarter estimate&#8221; for the SP 500 is something that has been tracked on&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[92],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5273","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-fwd-4-qtr-growth-rate-sp-500"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5273","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5273"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5273\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5283,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5273\/revisions\/5283"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5273"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5273"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5273"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}