{"id":4866,"date":"2015-05-23T14:06:41","date_gmt":"2015-05-23T14:06:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=4866"},"modified":"2015-05-23T14:06:41","modified_gmt":"2015-05-23T14:06:41","slug":"how-are-energy-sector-earnings-looking-into-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=4866","title":{"rendered":"How are Energy Sector Earnings Looking into 2016 ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>If you aren&#8217;t reading Bespoke&#8217;s research work (http:\/\/www.bespokepremium.com\/), you are missing out on some excellent and thorough research at a very reasonable price.<\/p>\n<p>In their weekly Bespoke Report, the Bespoke research team takes readers through market, economic, sentiment and technical data from the last week.<\/p>\n<p>Last night, while reviewing Thomson Reuter&#8217;s quarterly earnings data for Q1 &#8217;15 and through Q1 &#8217;16, here is how <em><strong>expected Energy earnings growth rates<\/strong> <\/em>have tracked according to the <em><strong>This Week in Earnings<\/strong><\/em> Report:<\/p>\n<p>(The first column (percentage) is the expected growth rate as of May 22, 2015, while the 2nd column in the expected growth rate as of April 1&#8242;, &#8217;15):<\/p>\n<p>Q1 &#8217;16: +20.2%, +46.3%<\/p>\n<p>q4 &#8217;15: -39.4%, -36.9%<\/p>\n<p>Q3 &#8217;15: -58.7%, -58.6%<\/p>\n<p>Q2 &#8217;15: -63.6%, -64.6%<\/p>\n<p>Q1 &#8217;15: -57.9%, -63.7%<\/p>\n<p>Per the weekly Thomson Reuters data, with 41 of 41 Energy companies having reported their Q1 &#8217;15 earnings, you can how the Energy expected earnings growth rates have stabilized over the last 7 weeks.<\/p>\n<p>That may not seem like much for readers, for the first stretch since last September, the forward quarter&#8217;s Energy earnings rates are getting &#8220;less negative&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>Here are some fundamental points noted in Bespoke&#8217;s weekly Bespoke Report dated May 22 (regarding oil and Energy)<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Crude oil is up 4.94% in 2015 YTD<\/li>\n<li>Crude oil inventories have now fallen 3 straight weeks<\/li>\n<li>This week&#8217;s crude oil inventory decline was 2.674 million barrels versus the expected 1.75 million barrels<\/li>\n<li>Crude inventories are still 139 million barrels above their historical average dating back to 1983<\/li>\n<li>Bespoke is bullish on crude (the commodity) &#8220;in the near to intermediate term&#8221;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em><strong>Summary \/ Conclusion: <\/strong><\/em>analytically, I&#8217;m focused on Q4 &#8217;15 and Q1 &#8217;16 in terms of expected growth rates since that will be the quarters with the easiest &#8220;compare&#8217;s, i.e. lapping the precipitous drops in crude oil prices in late &#8217;14 and early &#8217;15. At least so far, the numbers tell me that any price increase is likely to be gradual, and perhaps the $80 late &#8217;15 crude oil estimates by T. Boone Pickens and others might be a little steep right now.<\/p>\n<p>As a caveat for readers, the sector growth estimates change daily and weekly.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Lower for Longer&#8221; or &#8220;gradual improvement&#8221; might be the best way to articulate estimated price of crude oil over the next 12 months.<\/p>\n<p>In late July, early August, readers will be updated on the Energy sector growth rates, and at that point q2 &#8217;16 estimates will be available to look at as well.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If you aren&#8217;t reading Bespoke&#8217;s research work (http:\/\/www.bespokepremium.com\/), you are missing out on some excellent and thorough research at a&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[95],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4866","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-sector"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4866","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4866"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4866\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4873,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4866\/revisions\/4873"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4866"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4866"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4866"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}