{"id":4851,"date":"2015-05-20T23:28:25","date_gmt":"2015-05-20T23:28:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=4851"},"modified":"2015-05-20T23:28:25","modified_gmt":"2015-05-20T23:28:25","slug":"treasuries-most-oversold-since-2009-but-conflicting-signals-grow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=4851","title":{"rendered":"Treasuries – Most Oversold since 2009, But Conflicting Signals Grow"},"content":{"rendered":"

While contemplating a couple of different blog posts today, Gary Morrow’s post<\/a> from This Week on Wall Street (TWOWS), pretty much made the decision, as to what to write about tonight.<\/p>\n

Gary and I know each other from our days as co-contributors at Jim Cramer’s, TheStreet.com (or I guess what it is known as today as “The Street”), through most of the last decade. I think Morrow is a very good technician across a number of different time frames.\u00a0A former CME trader back in “the day” when the CME currencies were active, Gary cut his chops in open-outcry trading at the CME, where technical analysis rules the roost.<\/p>\n

Some small positions in the TLT and the AGG were put on to the long side today for clients, given the oversold nature of interest rates.<\/p>\n

However, another post from Doug McKay (Gary’s partner at TWOWS) here<\/a> on GLD is also worth noting to readers.<\/p>\n

On the longer term chart (not shown) the GLD looks like it is forming a longer base.<\/p>\n

The “why” of gold’s suggested bottoming action is as important to me as the base itself, and I wonder if it isn’t due to some possible signs of inflation emerging.<\/p>\n

WalMart’s recent wage hikes, along with TJ Maxx and McDonald’s following suit, were one important indicator that the long trend towards disinflation could be ending. It is a guess of course, but I bet the Fed pays more attention to “demand-pull” inflation than what is traditionally seen as “cost-push” (i.e. commodity) inflation, but that is one opinion. (Long WMT, small position in MCD owned since 2003).<\/p>\n

With so much retail sales data so weak, the jobless claims strength is puzzling, but the strength in claims continues unabated.<\/p>\n

Finally, the Employment Cost Index (ECI) recent strength is worth noting. Here is the link<\/a> to the Business Insider story and ECI graph that caught my eye shortly after its release on April 30, 15.<\/p>\n

Given Morrow’s note on the oversold nature of Treasuries, if the TLT does rally, but it can’t push through $123.82, or the 200-day moving average, that could be it for record low rates.<\/p>\n

Or maybe not<\/a>… Frustration abounds.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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