{"id":4627,"date":"2015-03-16T22:34:40","date_gmt":"2015-03-16T22:34:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=4627"},"modified":"2015-03-16T22:34:40","modified_gmt":"2015-03-16T22:34:40","slug":"sp-500-earnings-metrics-silverblatts-earnings-work-the-fed-model-and-todays-sp-500-rally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=4627","title":{"rendered":"SP 500 Earnings Metrics: Silverblatt’s Earnings Work, the Fed Model, and today’s SP 500 Rally"},"content":{"rendered":"

After forgetting to put the weekly earnings metrics into the Weekly Update on Saturday, here are the weekly metrics and some additional thoughts:<\/p>\n

Forward 4-quarter estimate:<\/strong><\/em> $119.78, down slightly from the prior week’s $119.87<\/p>\n

P.E ratio:<\/strong><\/em> 17(x)<\/p>\n

PEG ratio:<\/strong><\/em> 20.8(x)<\/p>\n

Earnings Yield:<\/strong><\/em> 5.83%<\/p>\n

Year-over-year growth rate of forward estimate:<\/strong><\/em> +0.82%, the lowest rate of growth since August 3rd, 2012, when the growth rate bottomed at 1.03%.<\/p>\n

One of the goals I have for this blog is to become an “earnings data aggregator”, where I mix and blend various earnings data sources for readers, and provide perspective on the data and highlight aspects of various services and what they do well, and where – in my opinion – they add value. Factset puts out that forward revenue data, which I think is valuable to track, which Thomson does not publish.<\/p>\n

Attached is Standard & Poor’s, Howard Silverblatt’s weekly earnings work:\u00a0SP500_EPS_DIV_ta2.xls (silverblatt)<\/a>. This is a great blog: on the first page, i.e. “estimates & PE’s” note the PEG of the Energy sector, which is distorting the PEG ratio listed above, as are the Utilities to a smaller extent. The only question i have is whether Howard’s “operating earnings contribution” in terms of the Energy sector is that 4% – 5% that Howard is using or the 10% that I have been guesstimating for 2015 SP 500 growth rates.<\/p>\n

As you look at Howard’s spreadsheet, check the SP 500 dividend yield:<\/strong><\/em> the SP 500 dividend yield is STILL very close to the 10-year Treasury yield, even after tonight’s close (the SP 500 rose 27.79 today, to close at 2,081.)<\/p>\n

The Fed Model, which tracks the SP 500 Earnings Yield (see above) versus the 10-year Treasury still leaves stocks as a screaming buy versus the 10-year Treasury, given the 5.83% versus 2.10% spread. What the Fed Model is telling us, whether you believe it or not, is that interest rates could rise substantially, and not put too much of a dent in the SP 500 from a valuation perspective. In 1997, when Greenspan first referenced the model in his speech, the 10-year Treasury was yielding about what the earnings yield is on the SP 500 today (5.7%, 5.8%) and the SP 500 earnings yield was near 2%, about where the 10-year Treasury is trading today. (Hmmm…)<\/p>\n

Today’s SP 500 rally took the key benchmark back over the 50-day moving average. We get Oracle’s (ORCL) earnings Tuesday night, Fed-Ex Wednesday morning, Lennar (LEN), Tiffany (TIF) and Nike (NKE) later in the week.<\/p>\n

The SP 500 rallied today even though crude oil fell – that hasn’t been the correlation the last 6 months.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

After forgetting to put the weekly earnings metrics into the Weekly Update on Saturday, here are the weekly metrics and…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,9,147,144,91],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4627","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-fed-model","category-sp-500","category-sp-500-dividend-yield","category-standard-poors-earnings-data","category-weekly-earnings-update"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4627","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4627"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4627\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4635,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4627\/revisions\/4635"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4627"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4627"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4627"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}