{"id":4167,"date":"2014-10-06T15:30:46","date_gmt":"2014-10-06T15:30:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=4167"},"modified":"2014-10-06T15:30:46","modified_gmt":"2014-10-06T15:30:46","slug":"10-6-14-expected-q3-14-sp-500-revenue-growth-by-sector","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=4167","title":{"rendered":"10.6.14: Expected q3 &#8217;14 SP 500 Revenue Growth by Sector"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/FCSP500revgroqtrly1.xls\">FCSP500revgro(qtrly)<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Here is the latest expected revenue growth rates by sector for the SP 500 for q3 &#8217;14.<\/p>\n<p>A couple of items caught my eye:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>Consumer Discretionary<\/strong><\/em>, which is retail, auto&#8217;s, housing, is returning to a mid-single digit quarterly revenue growth rate;<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Consumer Staples<\/strong><\/em>, which should be heavily influenced by the US dollar volatility, given the low to mid single digit secular growth rates and the degree to which the Staples revenues are non-US, actually has\u00a0seen revenue growth accelerate\u00a0for the 4th consecutive quarter, despite significant dollar strength in q3 &#8217;14;<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Industrials:<\/strong> <\/em>one notable CNBC commentator did comment that Industrial numbers were being cut a few times in the last few weeks, but Industrial revenue growth is expected to report its strongest\u00a0revenue growth as a sector, in q3 &#8217;14, since we&#8217;ve been tracking the data from q4 &#8217;12.\u00a0 Not sure how much of the Industrial sector\u00a0is GE, which should really be split between Industrial&#8217;s and Financials. (Truthfully, if GE would follow Hewlett-Packard&#8217;s (HPQ) model and split the company in two, you would think GE would unlock a lot of Industrial\/Energy value. Long GE and HPQ.)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Brian Langenburg, lead analyst at Langenburg &amp; Company, and a former Industrial analyst, does also note that estimates are being cut in the Industrial sector. \u00a0 Revenue growth doesn&#8217;t look too bad despite the strong dollar and global worries. (Tried to attach Langenburg &amp; Company&#8217;s report released at this am, but couldn&#8217;t get it attached.)<\/p>\n<p>The conclusion is that Industrial revenue estimates have been relatively stable, while the Industrial&#8217;s earnings (EPS) estimates have seen some pressure.<\/p>\n<p>No question the dollar is going to be an issue this quarter: whether it has been\u00a0fully discounted\u00a0and the results come in better-than-expected, or\u00a0the dollar strength&#8217;s\u00a0impact has been under-estimated, and guidance for q4 &#8217;14 is reduced further,\u00a0remains to be seen.<\/p>\n<p>My own opinion is that, after January 1, 2000 noting that domestic US growth was slowing, more US companies\u00a0moved their manufacturing and cost-of-goods-sold abroad, and aligned\u00a0their revenue generation with their expense structures (the natural currency hedge) than the last period we saw prolonged dollar strength, which was the late 1990&#8217;s.<\/p>\n<p>Thus a prolonged period of dollar strength, could be less onerous than in previous decades, given the shift in US manufacturing and services into other geographies.<\/p>\n<p>This is all navel gazing right now. We&#8217;ll know more in the next few weeks.<\/p>\n<p>We&#8217;ll update the actual revenue growth spreadsheet at the end of October &#8217;14.<\/p>\n<p>Trinity Asset Management, Inc. by:<\/p>\n<p>Brian Gilmartin, CFA<\/p>\n<p>Portfolio manager<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>FCSP500revgro(qtrly) Here is the latest expected revenue growth rates by sector for the SP 500 for q3 &#8217;14. A couple&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[100,85,120,114],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4167","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-consumer-discretionary","category-consumer-staples","category-industrials","category-sp-500-revenue-growth"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4167","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4167"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4167\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4174,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4167\/revisions\/4174"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4167"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4167"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4167"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}