{"id":3651,"date":"2014-05-02T19:16:58","date_gmt":"2014-05-02T19:16:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=3651"},"modified":"2014-05-02T19:16:58","modified_gmt":"2014-05-02T19:16:58","slug":"5-2-14-full-year-2014-sp-500-earnings-update-no-p-e-expansion-this-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=3651","title":{"rendered":"5.2.14: Full-Year 2014 SP 500 Earnings Update &#8211; No P.E expansion this year"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>We are a little late getting this out, but I wanted to see what the SP 500 earnings growth would look like for q1 &#8217;14 before updating our 2014 EPS scenario, which we wrote about <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=3298\">here<\/a>\u00a0earlier this year.<\/p>\n<p>The FINAL, ACTUAL 2013 EPS number for the SP 500 came in at $109.68, just shy of our expected $110 final number.<\/p>\n<p>Late in 2013 and early in 2014, we thought the final actual EPS number for 2014 would come in around $120, which would have meant 9.4% growth for calendar 2014 for SP 500 earnings.<\/p>\n<p>Today, or as of last week&#8217;s data, the current bottoms-up estimate for the SP 500 for 2014 is $118.57, and the top-down estimate is $116.93.<\/p>\n<p>Average the two and we get $117.75 or just 7.3% expected earnings growth for 2014.<\/p>\n<p>Put a 2(x) PEG ratio on the 7.3% expected growth rate and the SP 500 should be trading at 14(x) &#8211; 15(x) forward earnings, or exactly where it is trading currently.<\/p>\n<p>We will update q1 &#8217;14 SP 500 earnings late tonight or early tomorrow morning. q1 &#8217;14 earnings are coming in exactly where we expected at between 35 &#8211; 5%. We&#8217;ll also look at q2 &#8217;14 revisions.<\/p>\n<p>SP 500 are not the problem this year, given the 2.5% year-to-date return for the SP 500. We just aren&#8217;t seeing any P.E expansion as we did last year.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for reading and checking in&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>We&#8217;ll update blog readers in the next 24 hours with our Weekly Earnings Update.<\/p>\n<p>Trinity Asset Management, Inc. by:<\/p>\n<p>Brian Gilmartin, CFA<\/p>\n<p>Portfolio manager<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We are a little late getting this out, but I wanted to see what the SP 500 earnings growth would&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,89,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3651","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-earnings","category-earnings-estimate-revisions","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3651","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3651"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3651\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3653,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3651\/revisions\/3653"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3651"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3651"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3651"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}