{"id":3396,"date":"2014-03-08T15:55:21","date_gmt":"2014-03-08T15:55:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=3396"},"modified":"2014-03-08T15:55:21","modified_gmt":"2014-03-08T15:55:21","slug":"3-8-14-sp-500-earnings-update-q1-14-earnings-growth-continues-to-deflate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=3396","title":{"rendered":"3.8.14: SP 500 Earnings Update: Q1 &#8217;14 Earnings Growth Continues to Deflate"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Per ThomsonReuter&#8217;s &#8220;This Week in Earnings&#8221; the SP 500&#8217;s forward quarter estimate fell $0.32 this past week to $118.87 from $119.19.<\/p>\n<p>The p.e ratio on the forward estimate is now 15.8(x) as of Friday, March 7, 2014.<\/p>\n<p>The PEG ratio is now 2.58(x), exactly the same as last week.<\/p>\n<p>The &#8220;earnings yield&#8221; on the SP 500 is 6.33%.<\/p>\n<p>More importantly, the year-over-year growth rate on the forward 4-quarter estimate is now 6.11% versus 6.05%.<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8211;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Consistent with last week&#8217;s<a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=3372\"> conclusion<\/a>, 2014&#8217;s SP 500 earnings growth is going to be back-end loaded.<\/li>\n<li>q4 &#8217;13&#8217;s y\/y earnings growth with 493 companies having reported is 9.8%, just a smidge shy of our 10% prediction;<\/li>\n<li>q1 &#8217;14&#8217;s earnings growth is now expected at +2.4%, which will be the lowest rate of growth since q3 &#8217;12;<\/li>\n<li>Average the two quarters and I expect we&#8217;ll see 6% &#8211; 7% when q1 &#8217;14 is all reported by late June &#8217;14<\/li>\n<li>The biggest sector change between q4 &#8217;13 and q1 &#8217;14 is Financial sector earnings growth, which grew 25% in q4 &#8217;13, but is only expected to grow 3.4% in q1 &#8217;14;<\/li>\n<li>The worst sector for q1 &#8217;14 expected earnings growth is Energy with a decline of 5.8% expected currently, while Telco is expected to be up 11.8%. After Telco the next best growth rate for q1 &#8217;14 is Ute&#8217;s at 7.3% and Consumer Discretionary at 6%.<\/li>\n<li>Utilities (Ute&#8217;s) is the only sector with positive revisions since January 1 &#8217;14.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The week after next we hear from Oracle, (ORCL), Lennar (LEN), Fed-Ex (FDX) and Nike (NKE) within a 3-day period.<\/p>\n<p>Next week, we hear from more retail like Williams-Sonoma (WSM), but we will be paying attention to UNFI too, which is one of Whole Foods (WFM) largest suppliers.\u00a0We don&#8217;t own or follow UNFI any longer (haven&#8217;t for years) but when I was\u00a0modeling the company\u00a0WFM was something to the effect of\u00a01\/4 to 1\/3rd of all UNFI&#8217;s revenues. UNFI&#8217;s results will give another look at Whole Food&#8217;s business, not to mention whether the other specialty \/ organic retailers are growing as well. The Fresh Market (TFM) missed with their financial report Thursday night, and the stock was down 2% Friday. Pricey retail like organic continues to feel the weather-related pain.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for reading the Weekly Earnings Update.<\/p>\n<p>Trinity Asset management, Inc. by:<\/p>\n<p>Brian Gilmartin, CFA<\/p>\n<p>Portfolio manager<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Per ThomsonReuter&#8217;s &#8220;This Week in Earnings&#8221; the SP 500&#8217;s forward quarter estimate fell $0.32 this past week to $118.87 from&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,89,10,75,11,47,91],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3396","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-earnings","category-earnings-estimate-revisions","category-fdx","category-len","category-nke","category-orcl","category-weekly-earnings-update"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3396","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3396"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3396\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3403,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3396\/revisions\/3403"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3396"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3396"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3396"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}