{"id":2250,"date":"2013-07-25T14:06:46","date_gmt":"2013-07-25T14:06:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=2250"},"modified":"2013-07-25T14:06:46","modified_gmt":"2013-07-25T14:06:46","slug":"7-25-13-facebook-fb-long-and-wrong-until-this-earnings-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=2250","title":{"rendered":"7.25.13: Facebook (FB) &#8211; Long and Wrong until This Earnings Report"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_2251\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2251\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/FB72513.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-2251\" alt=\"Clic k to enlarge\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/FB72513-300x150.png\" width=\"300\" height=\"150\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/FB72513-300x150.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/FB72513-1024x514.png 1024w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/FB72513.png 1916w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-2251\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Clic k to enlarge<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Facebook (FB) is up sharly this morning after report very strong financial results last night, beating consensus revenue and earnings per share estimates handily,\u00a0on stronger-than-expected mobile ad revenue.<\/p>\n<p>We&#8217;ve been accumulating FB shares since November &#8217;12, and have written about FB here on this blog, <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=1816\">May 27, 13<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=1618\">April 30, &#8217;13<\/a>, and then again on<a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=1437\"> March 22, &#8217;13<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Here is our SeekingAlpha<a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1565682-facebook-inc-fb-facebook-earnings-preview-still-trading-at-discount-to-perceived-intrinsic-value\"> FB earnings preview <\/a>published earlier this week.<\/p>\n<p>FB is a stock with a growth-stock valuation, but we thought that the company was in the earlier stages of growth, and that it would eventually exceed its IPO price of $40 per share.<\/p>\n<p>Morningstar has an intrinsic value estimate on FB of $34, which we think is conservative. Our own internal model values FB closer to $75, which we think is too aggressive. Adjusting for the flaws and assumptions in all valuation models, we think FB would be getting fully-valued closer to $50 per share.<\/p>\n<p>No question this was a strong earnings report for FB, even though Q2 &#8217;13 earnings for technology has been rather subdued in general.<\/p>\n<p>The late January &#8217;13 high for FB was $32.51, and we would expect the stock should find good support near that price level.<\/p>\n<p>Today&#8217;s trading action represents a clear breakout for the stock, leaving a lot of doubters in it&#8217;s wake. We think the stock will work higher over time, but we will be fully prepared to take gains along the way.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for reading. We&#8217;ll take a victory lap on FB&#8217;s trading action today.<\/p>\n<p>Trinity Asset Management, Inc. by:<\/p>\n<p>Brian Gilmartin, CFA<\/p>\n<p>Portfolio manager<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; Facebook (FB) is up sharly this morning after report very strong financial results last night, beating consensus&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57,22,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2250","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-facebook-fb","category-fb","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2250","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2250"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2250\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2258,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2250\/revisions\/2258"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2250"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2250"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2250"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}