{"id":2197,"date":"2013-07-17T15:20:06","date_gmt":"2013-07-17T15:20:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=2197"},"modified":"2013-07-17T15:20:06","modified_gmt":"2013-07-17T15:20:06","slug":"7-17-13-added-treasury-etfs-for-a-short-term-trade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=2197","title":{"rendered":"7.17.13: Added Treasury ETF’s for a short-term trade"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"click<\/a>
click to enlarge<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"Click<\/a>
Click to enlarge<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

Note the two Treasury ETF charts above. We bought both for a sh0rt-term trade today\u00a0as both the IEF and the TLT are scraping their 200-week moving averages. We bought more IEF than TLT in the event we are wrong.<\/p>\n

Even if the ETf’s simply move sideways for a while, the trade will be worth it.<\/p>\n

The IEF is the 7 – 10 Treasury Bond ETF, which is the belly of the Treasury curve. The IEF fell $7 from its $109 peak in late April early May to its current price of $102.<\/p>\n

The TLT is a very tempting chart here from the long-side as the 2oo-week moving average is acting as good price support. The TLT could rally as much as $10 back to the blue line or the 50-week moving average before it stalls out.<\/p>\n

To be clear, I do believe the 10-year Treasury will\u00a0likely end the year near 3.90% –\u00a04% before we could see\u00a0a longer-term rally. Use $106.84 as a stop-loss for the TLT and $99.80 – $100 as a stop-loss for the IEF. Heavy volume through both those levels would necessitate a sale of the above ETF’s.<\/p>\n

We are very much bullish\u00a0US equities and bearish\u00a0Treasuries and\u00a0expect higher rates, but short-term trades are a good way to add value in balanced accounts.<\/p>\n

We realized a 3.5% –\u00a04% gain in the HYG by selling our long position this morning. We wrote about the HYG\u00a0trade here<\/a>, near the bottom of the write-up.<\/p>\n

Trinity Asset management, Inc. by:<\/p>\n

Brian Gilmartin, CFA<\/p>\n

Portfolio manager<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

  Note the two Treasury ETF charts above. We bought both for a sh0rt-term trade today\u00a0as both the IEF and…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[80,69,72],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2197","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ief","category-interest-rates","category-tlt"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2197","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2197"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2197\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2204,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2197\/revisions\/2204"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2197"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2197"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2197"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}