{"id":19959,"date":"2026-10-09T06:19:57","date_gmt":"2026-10-09T12:19:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=19959"},"modified":"2026-10-09T06:19:57","modified_gmt":"2026-10-09T12:19:57","slug":"jpmorgan-citigroup-and-bank-of-america-earnings-previews-eventually-a-return-to-more-normal-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=19959","title":{"rendered":"JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Bank of America Earnings Previews: Eventually a Return to More Normal Growth"},"content":{"rendered":"

Both JPMorgan (JPM) and Citigroup (C) are scheduled to report their Q3 ’26 financial results before the opening bell on Tuesday morning, October 13th, 2026.<\/p>\n

Bank of America (BAC) will report their q3 ’26 before the opening bell, Wednesday morning, October 14th.<\/p>\n

JPMorgan (JPM):\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

When JPM reports their Q3 ’26 financial results before the opening bell on Tuesday, October 13th, street consensus is expecting EPS of $5.90 and net revenue of $51.5 billion, for expected year-over-year (y-o-y) growth of 16% and 11%, respectively.<\/p>\n

Full-year ’26 estimates are currently expecting that the banking giant will see 24% EPS growth and 15% net revenue growth.<\/p>\n

In Q2 ’26, JPM net revenue grew 15% while EPS grew 24% yoy, primarily thanks to the equity market performance from April through June ’26. Equity trading and equity-related revenue rose 86% in Q2 ’26, up sharply from Q1 ’26, which was just 17% at that time, so Q3 ’26 will likely see a similar return to a more normal equity quarter. Fixed-income – at least the 2nd half of the quarter from mid-August ’26 – should also see tempered revenue growth.<\/p>\n

JPM’s results by segment:<\/p>\n

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Click on the above spreadsheet and look at Q2 ’26’s results. JPM’s corporate and investment bank is where the capital markets group resides, so that will likely mean a peak in y-o-y growth for the segment all the way through Q2 ’27. The Anthropic write-up, the SpaceX (SPCX) IPO and the overheated semiconductor market from May and June ’26 all added to a verry strong quarter for the money-center banks, investments banks, and any market-related entity that generated any trading revenue.<\/p>\n

More under-the-surface, but still a very real contributor to earnings growth is that JPM has repurchased $30.1 billion in common stock from Q2 ’26 back through Q3 ’25. Since Q4 ’24 through Q2 ’26, JPM has repo’ed 7.5% of it’s common shares.<\/p>\n

As of 10\/8\/26,\u00a0 stock is down about 10% from it’s all-time-high of $366 and is now oversold on the daily chart. The selling has been pretty steady since mid-August, once it became obvious the FOMC was going to raise interest rates.<\/p>\n

JPM is trading at 13x expected 24% EPS growth in full-year ’26, and then that EPS growth tempers to 0% in ’27 and 8% in ’28.<\/p>\n

Off all the big banks, JPM trades at the highest price-to-book multiple at 2.5x, but JPM has also generated the highest return-on-tangible common equity (ROTCE) in the low 20% range for the last 2 – 3 years.<\/p>\n

Citigroup (C):<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

When Citigroup reports it’s Q3 ’26 quarter on Tuesday morning, October 13th before the opening bell, analyst consensus expectation for EPS is $2.66 in EPS and $23.7 billion in revenue for expected EPS and net revenue growth of 43% and 7% respectively.<\/p>\n

Current full-year ’26 EPS and revenue growth estimates are expecting 48% EPS growth and 13% revenue growth for the bank that is still trying to dig out of 2008 and then Covid in 2020.<\/p>\n

In the last 7 quarters, Citigroup has averaged 39% y-o-y EPS growth, which assumes the $2.66 is at least met for Q3 ’26.<\/p>\n

In Q2 ’26 Citi generated 14% net revenue growth and from that investor saw 61% EPS growth. Citi reported a 13% ROTCE, but then guided to 11% for the full-year so there was some confusion, but Citi benefitted from capital markets activity as did JPMorgan, which may not repeat the next 2 quarters.<\/p>\n

Like JPM, Citi repurchased $18.45 bl in common stock the last 4 quarters, and has reduced fully diluted shares outstanding by 10% since Q4 ’23.<\/p>\n

Trading at just over 1x book value, Citi is more the value play of the two banking giants,\u00a0 but Citi has a much lower ROTCE than JPM’s. Citi is trading at just 11x expected 48% EPS growth in ’26, while 15% EPS growth is still expected in ’27 and ’28.<\/p>\n

Bank of America (BAC):<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Bank of America is scheduled to report their 3rd quarter, 2026, financial results before the opening bell on Wednesday October 14th, ’26.<\/p>\n

Before the numbers are posted, the one aspect to BAC’s estimates for Q2 ’26 and for calendar year estimates is that – of the three big banks – BAC is the only BAC to see lower estimates for Q3 ’26 today, than following the 2nd quarter results.<\/p>\n

BAC says in the 10-q that they are asset-sensitive, but the bank trades like it’s liability-sensitive.<\/p>\n

For BAC, street consensus is expecting EPS of $1.19, on $31.3 billion of net revenue for expected y-o-y growth of 12% and 11% respectively. Those expected results are in-between JPM and C, while expected full-year BAC results are expecting 20% EPS growth on 12% net revenue growth.<\/p>\n

Like C and JPM, BAC’s equity trading grew 70% in Q2 ’26, with a 50% boost in investment banking revenue.<\/p>\n

It was a GREAT quarter for BAC – aided substantially by capital markets – with ROTCE coming in at +17%.<\/p>\n

Today, BAC is trading at $54 per share, down from a high of $65, and is trading at 12x expected EPS this year of 20% growth, and 12% net revenue growth.<\/p>\n

The problem is the comp’s get tougher for the big giants, and BAC’s negative revisions, albeit slight revisions are different than JPM and Citi’s expected estimates.<\/p>\n

Here’s a look at key metrics for each bank:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Expected EPS growth:\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n