{"id":19938,"date":"2026-10-01T15:22:26","date_gmt":"2026-10-01T21:22:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=19938"},"modified":"2026-10-01T15:22:26","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T21:22:26","slug":"10-year-treasury-note-greatly-oversold-on-eve-of-september-nonfarm-payroll-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=19938","title":{"rendered":"10-year Treasury Note Greatly Oversold on Eve of September Nonfarm Payroll Report"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Probably a little wonky to view, but expand the above chart, which is the “weekly” 10-year Treasury yield chart.<\/p>\n

Normally technical analysis follows price movement, but bonds are a different animal than stocks, and this 10-year Treasury “yield” contract is traded at the Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE), and gives a look at yield technicals, vs price technicals.<\/p>\n

The 10-year Treasury Note yield is dramatically oversold – look at the bottom 1\/3rd of the chart – and compare it to 2022 and 2023’s oversold moments, when the FOMC was raising rates from 0% to 5% under Jay Powell.<\/p>\n

What’s interesting is that the 10-year Treasury is now oversold after one 25 bp move in 3 years, versus the move in fed funds from a 0% fed funds rate in early ’22 to over 5% in ’24.<\/p>\n

Tomorrow morning’s September nonfarm payroll report is expecting around 90,000 to 100,000 net new jobs created, and the expectations rose further after last week’s global PMI. The 10-year Treasury Note is spooked about something as the last two weeks alone, the 10-year yield has jumped from 5% on Friday, September 18th, 2026 to last night’s (Wednesday night’s close) of 5.29%.<\/p>\n

That’s 29 bp’s in 8 trading days.<\/p>\n

While the September jobs number will be important, the fact that the August core PCE fell to +0.2% yesterday morning, which was better better-than the +0.3% expected, saw the inflation relief do nothing for Treasuries.<\/p>\n

Perhaps WTI crude oil at $92 per barrel today, needs to drop materially. A strong dollar isn’t helping either.<\/p>\n

Summary \/ conclusion:<\/strong><\/em> Client’s bond positions remain mostly unchanged the last several months and even this year, with some tax loss selling in client accounts with capital gain sensitivity, but mostly the Treasury tantrum is being waited out. The YTD returns for Treasury ETF’s, corporate bond ETF’s, even international ETF’s, show -3% to -5% YTD returns on a host of fixed income asset classes.<\/p>\n

As of last night’s close, the Barclay’s Aggregate (AGG) was down just -2.78% YTD. (The sky really is falling – not.)<\/p>\n

With Q2 ’26 GDP growth revised higher last week, the AI and AI-related trade – judging by Micron’s results last night – seemingly have the foot pressed hard on the accelerator, while the Treasury bond market and the move in the 10-year Treasury yield, presses firmly on the brake, at least temporarily.<\/p>\n

I don’t have a prediction or “call” on the number tomorrow, but anything lighter-than-expected, i.e. below 50,000, might finally generate a rally in Treasuries, and other investment-grade product.<\/p>\n

None of this is advice or a recommendation, but only an opinion. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. None of this information may be updated, and if updated, may not be done in a timely fashion. All returns sourced from Morningstar.<\/p>\n

Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Probably a little wonky to view, but expand the above chart, which is the “weekly” 10-year Treasury yield chart. Normally…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[190,137],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19938","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-10-year-treasury-yield","category-crude-oil-energy"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19938","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=19938"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19938\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19942,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19938\/revisions\/19942"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=19938"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=19938"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=19938"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}