{"id":19836,"date":"2026-08-21T06:51:23","date_gmt":"2026-08-21T12:51:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=19836"},"modified":"2026-08-21T06:51:23","modified_gmt":"2026-08-21T12:51:23","slug":"10-year-treasury-yield-chart-and-what-2027-energy-sector-estimates-are-saying","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=19836","title":{"rendered":"10-Year Treasury Yield Chart and What 2027 Energy Sector Estimates are Saying"},"content":{"rendered":"

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The mainstream financial media has been quite fervent this week about the Treasury buybacks and the potential for a breakdown in Treasury interest rates (higher yields, lower prices) so I thought a 10-year Treasury yield chart would be appropriate to show readers that the 10-year Treasury yield remains below longer-term resistance, and is still contained within it’s recent-years trading range.<\/p>\n

The above chart – from Worden 2000 – shows the 10-year Treasury yield closed last night at 4.69% – 4.70%, still below the January ’25 highs of 4.80% – 4.81% and the October ’23 highs of exactly 5%.<\/p>\n

A close above the 5% for the 10-year Treasury yield, particularly a weekly close, would be troublesome.<\/p>\n

Despite the hyperbolic headlines of the mainstream media, the Treasury market isn’t broken quite yet.<\/p>\n

Energy Sector EPS Trends:\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

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These two tables show the 2026 changes in SP 500 EPS trends by sector and more importantly what 2027 is looking like with four months and 1 week remaining in calendar ’26.<\/p>\n

Note the trend in the energy sector’s “expected” EPS growth for 2027.<\/p>\n

It’s surprising to still see negative expected EPS growth for energy for 2027.<\/p>\n

Summary:<\/strong><\/em> It’s felt like the Iran conflict and the rise in WTI crude oil’s price, has seen the Middle East situation get away from the current Administration, or at least get a lot more complicated than what looked to be the case in late February – early March ’26, but 2027’s estimated energy sector growth (per LSEG) still shows potential for the crude oil prices to drop, with the potential for 2027 becoming a more normal year for crude oil prices.<\/p>\n

This being said, this blog will continue to watch 2027’s energy sector EPS trend.<\/p>\n

WTI Crude oil is trading at $87 this morning, with a 52-week range of $55 – $119 per AI.<\/p>\n

In terms of the Treasury and high-grade corporate bond market, the sentiment in the Treasury complex has turned remarkably dour. The temptation is to do some tax-loss selling for clients who are long the TLT, and replace that position with longer-duration municipals.<\/p>\n

Typically, when sentiment turns this sour or negative around any individual security or asset class, it can present opportunity for longer-term investors.<\/p>\n

The TLT is now oversold on the daily and weekly price charts.<\/p>\n

None of this is advice or a recommendation, but only an opinion. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. None of the information on this blog post may be updated, and if updated, may not be done in a timely fashion. Readers should gauge their own comfort with portfolio volatility and adjust accordingly.<\/p>\n

Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The mainstream financial media has been quite fervent this week about the Treasury buybacks and the potential for a breakdown…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[190,95,83,119],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19836","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-10-year-treasury-yield","category-energy-sector","category-municipal-bond-market","category-municipal-high-yield"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19836","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=19836"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19836\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19845,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19836\/revisions\/19845"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=19836"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=19836"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=19836"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}