{"id":19598,"date":"2026-06-08T06:52:53","date_gmt":"2026-06-08T12:52:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=19598"},"modified":"2026-06-08T06:52:53","modified_gmt":"2026-06-08T12:52:53","slug":"is-tech-sector-growth-sustainable-and-how-are-expected-q2-26-sp-500-eps-estimates-faring","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=19598","title":{"rendered":"Is Tech Sector Growth Sustainable and How are Expected Q2 &#8217;26 SP 500 EPS Estimates Faring ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>No question, Q1 &#8217;26 financial results for the SP 500 companies has been nothing short of phenomenal, particularly for the technology sector, even with some one-time mark-ups of Anthropic resulting in a slightly-elevated growth for y-o-y tech sector growth, currently sitting at 56.8%.<\/p>\n<p>With all the hyperbole around AI, is this kind of sector growth rate sustainable for the tech sector into the foreseeable future ?<\/p>\n<p>Personally, I don&#8217;t think so, but stranger things have happened with markets.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s how &#8220;expected&#8221; tech sector growth rates stand &#8211; per the weekly LSEG data &#8211; as of Friday, June 5th, 2026:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Q1 &#8217;26: +56.8% (with 493 companies having reported Q1 &#8217;26 financial results, we can safely call this an actual growth rate for Q1 &#8217;26, although it will be revised slightly)<\/li>\n<li>Q2 &#8217;26: +60.4%<\/li>\n<li>Q3 &#8217;26: +52.6%<\/li>\n<li>Q4 &#8217;26: +43.9%<\/li>\n<li>Q1 &#8217;27: +37.1%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Q1 &#8217;27 tech sector earnings will be faced with the Anthropic mark-ups and other one-time charges next year. Q1 &#8217;26&#8217;s quarterly tech results should be reduced by 5% &#8211; 7% thanks to these 1-time gains.<\/p>\n<p>This blog has been logging quarterly EPS growth rates for each SP 500 sector since Q4 &#8217;11: the tech sector &#8220;averaged&#8221; +10.3% quarterly growth from Q4 &#8217;11 through Q4 &#8217;19, and this was the era of &#8220;cloud, mobile, social&#8221;, etc.<\/p>\n<p>Excluding the COVID period, which this blog considers Q1 &#8217;20 through Q4 &#8217;22, the &#8220;average&#8221; EPS growth rate for the tech sector is +19%. (The AI boom is thought to have unofficially started with the release of ChatGpt in November, &#8217;22.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>How is expected Q2 &#8217;26 SP 500 EPS growth looking today ?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Q226expectedEPSgrowthrates6526.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-19601\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Q226expectedEPSgrowthrates6526-300x111.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"111\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Q226expectedEPSgrowthrates6526-300x111.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Q226expectedEPSgrowthrates6526-150x56.png 150w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Q226expectedEPSgrowthrates6526-768x285.png 768w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Q226expectedEPSgrowthrates6526.png 793w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Energy, technology and basic materials are expected to see the best growth.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s interesting that this blog&#8217;s long-term valuation model uses a 7% SP 500 EPS growth rate for valuation purposes.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>A quick look at Goldman Sachs EPS estimate revisions in front of the SpaceX (SPCX) IPO:\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/GSEPSestrevisionspreSPXCIPO6526.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-19608\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/GSEPSestrevisionspreSPXCIPO6526-300x263.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"263\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/GSEPSestrevisionspreSPXCIPO6526-300x263.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/GSEPSestrevisionspreSPXCIPO6526-150x131.png 150w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/GSEPSestrevisionspreSPXCIPO6526.png 589w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Personally I thought 2026 EPS revisions would look a little more robust, in front of the SpaceX (SPCX). The 2026 EPS estimate has only improved 10% since 12\/31\/25.<\/p>\n<p>That being said, investment banks and trading firms are very tough to model in terms of EPS and revenue estimates since trading and banking are so opaque in terms of the income statement. Semiconductors are the other sector with one of the highest &#8220;standard deviation&#8221; of EPS estimates relative to the mean.<\/p>\n<p>Just assume GS and probably MS as well will generate big &#8220;upside surprises&#8221; with their Q2 &#8217;26 financial results.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Quick Summary: <\/strong><\/em>The US capital markets are in another remarkable period much like the late 1990&#8217;s, and to be frank with readers, investors can make a lot of money during these periods.<\/p>\n<p>The most difficult aspect to being an investor is to maintain a long-term perspective on capital markets when the market environment is at it&#8217;s easiest in terms of creating wealth for clients.<\/p>\n<p>Just remember, &#8220;everything changes&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>The ironic aspect to studying historical returns is that the 3rd year of the Presidential cycle returns is usually the strongest which for President Trump&#8217;s 2nd term is\u00a0 2027, or next year.<\/p>\n<p>None of this is advice or a recommendation, but only an opinion. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All EPS and revenue is sourced from LSEG. None of the information above may be updated, and if updated, may not be done in a timely manner.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>No question, Q1 &#8217;26 financial results for the SP 500 companies has been nothing short of phenomenal, particularly for the&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[123,91],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19598","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-technology","category-weekly-earnings-update"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19598","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=19598"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19598\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19611,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19598\/revisions\/19611"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=19598"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=19598"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=19598"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}