{"id":1949,"date":"2013-06-13T15:52:18","date_gmt":"2013-06-13T15:52:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=1949"},"modified":"2013-06-13T15:52:18","modified_gmt":"2013-06-13T15:52:18","slug":"6-13-13-sp-500-going-much-higher-over-time","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=1949","title":{"rendered":"6.13.13: SP 500 Going Much Higher (Over Time)"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Click<\/a>
Click to enlarge<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

We still struggle with getting our graphs right, but this chart \/ graph courtesy of Norm Conley of JA Glynn out of St. Louis, tells me that while, we will have corrections and short-term bear markets over time, the probability that the SP 500 goes much, much higher over time is quite favorable.<\/p>\n

On an inflation-adjsuted basis, the SP 500 is just recovering its March, 2000 highs. (I wish this graph was available to me in March, 2000.)<\/p>\n

What is happening in Japan, despite the 20% correction\u00a0 in the Nikkei and the blaring negative headlines the last few weeks, is a positive as Abe and Kuroda try to break the Japanese economy (still the #3-ranked economy in the world) out of its deflationary grip.<\/p>\n

The USA economy will continue to grow, albeit at a slower rate given the fiscal policy constraints, but the US economy will grow.<\/p>\n

Note the table highlighted in green in the middle of the chart – the high end for the “inflation-adjusted” SP 500 over the next few years is 1,000, versus late May’s close of 311.76.<\/p>\n

Be prudent with your investments, and don’t get stupid, but overweighting stocks vs bonds in the standard 60% \/ 40% asset allocation today, might not be an imprudent posture.<\/p>\n

For current clients we are overweight US large-cap equities, and credit-risk in bond portfolios.<\/p>\n

In my opinion (and this is just an opinion), the long 13-year drought in breakeven or negative returns for US large-cap stocks has ended.<\/p>\n

Trinity Asset Management, Inc. by:<\/p>\n

Brian Gilmartin, CFA<\/p>\n

Portfolio manager<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We still struggle with getting our graphs right, but this chart \/ graph courtesy of Norm Conley of JA Glynn…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1949","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sp-500"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1949","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1949"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1949\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1955,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1949\/revisions\/1955"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1949"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1949"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1949"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}