{"id":19085,"date":"2025-12-14T10:53:19","date_gmt":"2025-12-14T16:53:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=19085"},"modified":"2025-12-14T10:53:19","modified_gmt":"2025-12-14T16:53:19","slug":"the-2025-estimated-sp-500-eps-growth-rate-has-improved-from-9-in-july-25-to-14-on-dec-12-25","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=19085","title":{"rendered":"The 2025 Estimated SP 500 EPS Growth Rate has Improved from +9% in July, ’25 to +14% on Dec 12 ’25"},"content":{"rendered":"

Rather than bury the lede, the title tells readers the surprise received this weekend, after updating SP 500 EPS estimate this week. My guess is LSEG had a problem with some of their data in the last few weeks since the forward-estimate and the quarterly bottom-up estimates remained unchanged for 3 weeks, but imagine the surprise looking at 2025 EPS data this weekend. 2026 is expected to see +14% SP 500 EPS growth. 2025 was on track for 9% growth as recent as 5 months ago.<\/p>\n

Even with Broadcom and Oracle’s earnings reports last week (noting the stock reaction), the expected “technology sector” growth rates were still revised slightly higher with this weekend’s “This Week in Earnings” report.<\/p>\n

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Scary chart #1: Trendspider’s SP 500 weekly chart with Bollinger Bands. The SP 500 could have a sizable correction and not violate the Bollinger band downside trend line.<\/p>\n

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Scary chart #2: The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) daily chart. The QQQ’s backing further away from the 10\/29\/25 637 all-time-high.<\/p>\n

Now the flip-side of the scary technicals featuring very bullish earnings fundamentals:<\/p>\n

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Look at the first data column, i.e. the trend in Q3 ’25 SP EPS growth rates. That’s almost a doubling off the 6\/8\/25 low point of an expected +7.8%. We might get above it by next week’s update.<\/p>\n