{"id":18738,"date":"2025-10-04T07:44:15","date_gmt":"2025-10-04T13:44:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=18738"},"modified":"2025-10-04T10:10:39","modified_gmt":"2025-10-04T16:10:39","slug":"sp-500-earnings-the-relentless-but-still-measured-rally-in-the-sp-500","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=18738","title":{"rendered":"SP 500 Earnings: The Relentless &#8211; but Still Measured &#8211; Rally in the SP 500"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The quarterly bump hit the earnings data this week, as the new forward 4-quarter estimate for the SP 500 rolled into the 4 quarters from Q4 &#8217;25 to Q3 &#8217;26.<\/p>\n<p>The $10 increase in the forward 4-quarter estimate (FFQE) results in the new FFQE being $293.97, after last week&#8217;s final FFQE from Q3 &#8217;25 through Q2 &#8217;26 was $283.19.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/SP500annualEPSestimates10325.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-18740\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/SP500annualEPSestimates10325-300x84.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"84\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/SP500annualEPSestimates10325-300x84.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/SP500annualEPSestimates10325-1024x286.png 1024w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/SP500annualEPSestimates10325-150x42.png 150w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/SP500annualEPSestimates10325-768x214.png 768w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/SP500annualEPSestimates10325.png 1240w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Personally, I like this perspective on annual SP 500 since it shows rate-of-change for the annual estimates each week.<\/p>\n<p>Note the steady improvement in the numbers for all three calendar years, i.e. &#8217;25, &#8217;26, and &#8217;27.<\/p>\n<p>The earnings multiples on the above estimates:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>&#8217;27:<\/strong><\/em> 20x<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>&#8217;26:<\/strong><\/em> 22x<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>&#8217;25:<\/strong><\/em> 25x<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The SP 500 earnings yield bounced a little this week, despite the rally as the $10 increase in the FFQE improved the SP 500 earnings yield from 4.26% last week to 4.37% this week.\u00a0While I&#8217;d like to see the SP 500 earnings yield higher &#8211; at least 4.75% to 5% area &#8211; the persistent and healthy increases in the SP 500 earnings is providing a floor for the SP 500.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s hard to say when that changes as 2026&#8217;s EPS estimate is still moving higher, as the spreadsheet above shows.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Summary \/ conclusion: <\/strong><\/em>Most folks wouldn&#8217;t guess that investors are looking at a potential $300 EPS estimate for late 2026. Rather then re-write War &amp; Peace, this post from last week on how Q3 &#8217;25 SP 500 EPS by sector have trended (<a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=18701\">here<\/a>) still applies.<\/p>\n<p>This coming week&#8217;s companies that report hold no interest with the possible exception of Pepsi (PEP), which is getting interest from activists. Coca-Cola (KO) spun-off it&#8217;s bottling operations last decade and since January 1 &#8217;15 and January 1 &#8217;20, KO has underperformed the SP 500 by half over those two time periods.<\/p>\n<p>None of this is advice or a recommendation, but only an opinion. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All SP 500 EPS estimates are sourced from LSEG.com.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The quarterly bump hit the earnings data this week, as the new forward 4-quarter estimate for the SP 500 rolled&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[104,91],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18738","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-coca-cola-ko","category-weekly-earnings-update"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18738","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18738"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18738\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18752,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18738\/revisions\/18752"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18738"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18738"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18738"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}