![\"\"](\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/SP500quarterlyexpEPSrevgrorates62025.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nWhat this is telling readers is that while the Q2 ’25 and Q3 ’25 expected SP 500 EPS growth rate have been revised sharply lower, Q3 ’25 EPS is still holding up slightly better although it has another 14 weeks before we start seeing Q3 ’25 earnings in early October ’25.<\/p>\n
The Q1 ’25 “upside surprise” was quite strong again at better-than-6% upside, so the key for Q2 ’25 will be to pay attention to how actual earnings come in relative to estimates, and then measure that upside and compare it to past quarters.<\/p>\n
Here’s the last 5 quarters of SP 500 EPS “upside surprises”:<\/p>\n
- \n
- Q1 ’25 (est):<\/strong><\/em> +6.2%<\/li>\n
- Q4 ’24 (actual):<\/strong><\/em> +6.9%<\/li>\n
- Q3 ’24 (actual):<\/strong><\/em> +7.5%<\/li>\n
- Q2 ’24 (actual):<\/strong><\/em> +4.6%<\/li>\n
- Q1 ’24 (actual):<\/strong><\/em> +8.0%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
It’s interesting that Q2 ’24 has a relatively easier comparison at +4.6% to gauge against this year’s Q2 ’25 earnings, which will start getting released July 10th ’25.<\/p>\n
Another aspect to Q2 ’24 earnings was that many of the “Mag 7” stock prices peaked in July – August ’24 time frame, and only Microsoft has managed to trade back to an all-time-high in the last few weeks.<\/p>\n
Micron Technology’s fiscal Q3 ’25 earnings Wednesday night will give us a good idea if the semi’s can muster a rally in the 3rd quarter, possibly pulling mega-cap tech higher with it, and thus break the tech sector and the Nasdaq 100 out to all-time-highs.\u00a0It’s a long-time Bespoke-ism from Paul Hickey, but when semiconductor stocks (the SMH ETF) is\/are breaking out to all-time-highs, and trading higher, it tends to portend favorably for large-cap technology and the market in general.<\/p>\n
The Q3 ’25 SP 500 EPS growth rate could eventually wind up lower than Q2 ’25 EPS growth rate given the reciprocal tariff deadline around July 8th, but it’s probably not an exaggeration that many SP 500 companies will wind up guiding cautiously again.<\/p>\n
With FedEx, Micron Technology and Nike this week, investors will get a good look at the May and June ’25 economic activity for each company.<\/p>\n
None of this is advice or a recommendation, but only an opinion. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.<\/p>\n
Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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- Q4 ’24 (actual):<\/strong><\/em> +6.9%<\/li>\n