{"id":1709,"date":"2013-05-14T18:30:44","date_gmt":"2013-05-14T18:30:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=1709"},"modified":"2013-05-14T18:30:44","modified_gmt":"2013-05-14T18:30:44","slug":"5-14-13-financials-outperforming-morgan-stanleys-chart","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=1709","title":{"rendered":"5.14.13: Financials Outperforming. Morgan Stanley&#8217;s Chart"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_1710\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1710\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/MS51413.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1710\" alt=\"Click to enlarge\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/MS51413-300x150.png\" width=\"300\" height=\"150\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/MS51413-300x150.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/MS51413-1024x515.png 1024w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/MS51413.png 1918w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-1710\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Click to enlarge<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Financials are on fire today as the capital market and market sensitive names like Goldman Sachs (GS), Schwab (SCHW) and JP Morgan (JPM) start to get a persisent bid.\u00a0The SP 500 is hitting all-time highs every day and credit spreads and the corporate bond markets remain well-behaved.<\/p>\n<p>We&#8217;ve been recommending financials to readers <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=1623\">here<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=1450\"> here <\/a>and <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=1322\">here<\/a>\u00a0and even before that.<\/p>\n<p>The Morgan Staney (MS) chart caught our eye today, so we added MS to a few accounts this morning. I&#8217;m not a big fan of Citi (C) or AIG by any stretch so I am looking for financial names that will outperform in 2013.<\/p>\n<p>Current EPS consensus for MS is looking for $2.06 and $2.53 in 2013 and 2014 after earnings just $0.13 in 2012, so the stock is trading about 11 &#8211; 12(x) expected 2013 earnings for hefty growth this year and next.<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;ve followed the brokers for years and with the markets as a tailwind, Wall Street consistently underestimates results. That being said, the political incorrectness of proprietary trading these days means the brokers are intermediaries rather than outright risk takers, although I&#8217;m sure prop trading isn&#8217;t gone completely.<\/p>\n<p>My guess is, if 2013 continues apace, particularly with the SP 500 making new highs daily, Japan and signs of life out of Europe, MS could earn at least $3 per share by 2014.<\/p>\n<p>The dilution in 2008 and to date has been\u00a0horrendous, thus with curtailed risk appetites\u00a0and shareholders diluted in the extremus, don&#8217;t expect to see $100 or the 2000 high for many, many moons.<\/p>\n<p>What worries me about MS ? Here is a fully diluted shares outstanding at the end of each fiscal year, since 2008. In 2009, MS started reporting on calendar\u00a0year:\u00a0(Source ThomsonReuters Datastream)<\/p>\n<p>12\/31\/12: 1.886 bl<\/p>\n<p>12\/31\/11: 1.675<\/p>\n<p>12\/31\/10: 1.411<\/p>\n<p>12\/31\/09: 1.185 bl<\/p>\n<p>11\/30\/08: 1.096 bl<\/p>\n<p>If this dilution would stop, the stock will get legs in a hurry.<\/p>\n<p>Trinity Asset Management, Inc. by:<\/p>\n<p>Brian Gilmartin, CFA<\/p>\n<p>Portfolio manager<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Financials are on fire today as the capital market and market sensitive names like Goldman Sachs (GS), Schwab (SCHW) and&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[53,60,61,36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1709","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-financials","category-gs","category-ms","category-schw"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1709","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1709"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1709\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1719,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1709\/revisions\/1719"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1709"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1709"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1709"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}