{"id":15614,"date":"2024-04-03T16:02:03","date_gmt":"2024-04-03T22:02:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=15614"},"modified":"2024-04-03T16:02:03","modified_gmt":"2024-04-03T22:02:03","slug":"sp-500-and-bond-market-annual-returns-style-box-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=15614","title":{"rendered":"SP 500 and Bond Market Annual Returns \/ Style-Box Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/SP500annualreturns33124.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-15615\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/SP500annualreturns33124-300x108.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"108\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/SP500annualreturns33124-300x108.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/SP500annualreturns33124-150x54.png 150w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/SP500annualreturns33124-768x275.png 768w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/SP500annualreturns33124.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>This SP 500 annual return table shows the annual returns for the benchmark for various periods going back to 1\/1\/2000.<\/p>\n<p>From 1\/1\/2000 through 3\/31\/24, the annual return for the SP 500 is just 7.40%, the only return that looks reasonable the last 23 years.<\/p>\n<p>Looking at the SP 500 annual return data by decade:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>2000 to 2009<\/strong><\/em>: 1.25% per year<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>2010 to 2019<\/strong><\/em>: 13.55% per year<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>2020 to 3\/31\/24<\/strong><\/em>: 13.89% per year<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em><strong>Nasdaq 100 (QQQ&#8217;s) &#8211; not shown on table<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>2000 to 2009<\/strong><\/em>: -12.67%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>2010 to 2020<\/strong><\/em>: +20.30%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>2020 to 3\/31\/24<\/strong><\/em>: +19.95%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Here&#8217;s an interesting data point: 01\/01\/2000 through 3\/31\/24 (QQQ): +4.41% (lower than the SP 500&#8217;s return for the same period).<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Bond annual returns:\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/bondannualreturn33124.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-15618\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/bondannualreturn33124-300x158.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"158\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/bondannualreturn33124-300x158.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/bondannualreturn33124-150x79.png 150w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/bondannualreturn33124.png 610w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>High-yield credit has done well the last year in terms of absolute returns.<\/p>\n<p>Note the 3-year returns for just about every bond sub asset class on the spreadsheet. 5-year isn&#8217;t much better either.<\/p>\n<p>Updating the spreadsheets after the close tonight, (4\/3\/24), I caught Rick Santelli on CNBC&#8217;s Fast Money. Rick is still looking for higher interest rates and judging by some of the comments out of the Sohn Conference today on deficits and gold, maybe that&#8217;s the right bet.<\/p>\n<p>Take a look at the 10-year return on the TLT, just 1% (per year).<\/p>\n<p>Maybe the buy signal will be when the 10-year returns all turn negative.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Style-Box Update:\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/styleboxupdate33124.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-15620\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/styleboxupdate33124-300x97.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"97\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/styleboxupdate33124-300x97.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/styleboxupdate33124-1024x332.png 1024w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/styleboxupdate33124-150x49.png 150w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/styleboxupdate33124-768x249.png 768w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/styleboxupdate33124-1536x498.png 1536w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/styleboxupdate33124-1600x518.png 1600w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/styleboxupdate33124.png 1614w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Small and mid-cap had a decent 2021 and 2022 (far right) but large-cap and growth re-asserted themselves last year and in Q1 &#8217;24.<\/p>\n<p>Small and mids had a strong Q4 &#8217;23, but look at mid-cap growth in Q1 &#8217;24. Not sure what drove that.<\/p>\n<p>The annual returns for all the style boxes (bottom rows) are not bullish. Maybe the 3-year returns for small and mid, but that&#8217;s a bout it &#8211; they are still single digits.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Summary \/ conclusion: <\/strong><\/em>Make of this what you will. I update the numbers just for my own edification. The one bullish metric for annual returns is the 23-year return on the Q&#8217;s vs the SP 500. That surprised me (this was the first time I&#8217;d run the QQQ data.)<\/p>\n<p>None of this is advice or an opinion. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing can involve loss of principal even over the short-term. Readers should gauge their own comfort with portfolio volatility and adjust their portfolios accordingly.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This SP 500 annual return table shows the annual returns for the benchmark for various periods going back to 1\/1\/2000.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[248,191,142],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15614","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-annual-return","category-qqq","category-style-analysis"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15614","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15614"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15614\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15621,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15614\/revisions\/15621"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15614"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15614"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15614"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}