{"id":14609,"date":"2023-09-28T09:24:58","date_gmt":"2023-09-28T15:24:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=14609"},"modified":"2023-09-28T09:24:58","modified_gmt":"2023-09-28T15:24:58","slug":"nike-earnings-preview-low-expectations-w-poor-sentiment-comps-get-easier-in-fy-24","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=14609","title":{"rendered":"Nike Earnings Preview: Low Expectations w\/ Poor Sentiment; Comp’s Get Easier in FY ’24"},"content":{"rendered":"

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This chart of Nike relative to the SP 500 shows Nike’s underperformance since the peak in the stock in early November ’21.<\/p>\n

Frankly this sell-off has been the best buying opportunity for longer-term buy-and-hold investors on the stock since March, 2020.<\/p>\n

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This is a longer-term chart of Nike’s performance vs the SP 500 (total return) as of January 1, 2000.<\/p>\n

The low for Nike almost exactly one year ago on 9\/30\/22, was $82 per share, during the Q3 ’22 stock and bond market selloff’s following Jackson Hole in ’22.<\/p>\n

How do NKE’s EPS and revenue revisions look ?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

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With fiscal ’23 in the books, and with investors looking at the first fiscal quarter of 2024 tonight. fiscal ’24 and ’25 EPS estimates have come down in the last 12 months, with fiscal ’24 EPS estimates declining 2.3% and fiscal ’25 falling over 7%.<\/p>\n

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Fiscal ’24 revisions are actually up slightly in the last 12 months, wile fiscal ’25 revenue revisions have been revised lower by 1.3%.<\/p>\n

(EPS and revenue estimate revisions sourced from IBES data by Refinitiv).<\/p>\n

When revenue estimates stay stable and EPS estimates see downward revisions that usually indicates a margin issue: let’s take a quick look at Nike’s historical operating margin performance:<\/p>\n