{"id":14040,"date":"2023-03-14T10:58:12","date_gmt":"2023-03-14T16:58:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=14040"},"modified":"2023-03-14T10:58:12","modified_gmt":"2023-03-14T16:58:12","slug":"sp-500-earnings-4th-quarter-23-eps-growth-continues-to-stick-out","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=14040","title":{"rendered":"SP 500 Earnings: 4th quarter, &#8217;23 EPS Growth Continues to Stick Out"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/SP500qtrlybottomupEPSrevgrorates31023.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-14041\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/SP500qtrlybottomupEPSrevgrorates31023-300x138.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"138\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/SP500qtrlybottomupEPSrevgrorates31023-300x138.jpg 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/SP500qtrlybottomupEPSrevgrorates31023-1024x469.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/SP500qtrlybottomupEPSrevgrorates31023-150x69.jpg 150w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/SP500qtrlybottomupEPSrevgrorates31023-768x352.jpg 768w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/SP500qtrlybottomupEPSrevgrorates31023.jpg 1141w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Clients know I&#8217;m not a big fan of vacations, since even with a laptop and an iPhone, one can feel very unplugged from the capital markets.<\/p>\n<p>Last Thursday, I snuck off to Lake Okeechobee, Florida to do some bass fishing with a long-time high school friend, and as of Wednesday afternoon last week, my thought was &#8220;I&#8217;ll be back in plenty of time for CPI and just sweat the jobs report on Friday morning.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Well, by Thursday afternoon getting off the plane and heading to Clewiston, Florida, it was &#8220;all Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), all the time.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The improvement in average hourly earnings last Friday in the February &#8217;23 jobs report continues to portend an improvement in the inflation data although &#8220;services PCE&#8221; seems to continue to be an issue. CPI data this morning &#8211; looking at year-over-year growth &#8211; continues to decline, which is good news, but the CPI and the PPI are the narrowest of the inflation indices.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>SP 500 earnings data:\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The above table starts with the 9\/30\/22 data, and readers want to look at the Q4 &#8217;23 EPS data &#8211; it continues to improve in terms of expected growth and I do think that signals an accommodative Fed sometime this summer, or maybe sooner.<\/li>\n<li>Despite the news on SVB last week, the &#8220;forward 4-quarter estimate&#8221; rose last week to $221.55, from $221.44, the first week of sequential increase in the data since January 6, &#8217;23;<\/li>\n<li>The PE ratio as of last Friday&#8217;s close was 17.4x versus 18.25x the prior week;<\/li>\n<li>The SP 500 earnings yield jumped to 5.74%;<\/li>\n<li>Q4 &#8217;22 earnings are pretty much done, thus the companies heard from this week and next will have February &#8217;23 quarter end.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Note in the table above that we want to watch what happens with Q1 and Q2 &#8217;23 EPS, which look negative now, and might get worse, but with earnings starting in a month, I wouldn&#8217;t be surprised to see both quarters come in near &#8220;unch&#8217;ed&#8221; by the time the reporting is done.<\/p>\n<p>Note too the 2024 data, to the right of the table: it&#8217;s a little early to bet on that, but I&#8217;m more interested in the direction of the revisions than the overall numbers.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Summary \/ conclusions:\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Please excuse the late reporting of the SP 500 earnings data (compliments of IBES data by Refinitiv). Typically this update is written Saturday or Sunday every week.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=13943\">This blog post<\/a> in late January &#8217;23 highlights what early earnings projections are showing for late &#8217;23, and it&#8217;s still positive. It&#8217;s almost 8 weeks later and Q4 &#8217;23 expected EPS growth is holding up.<\/p>\n<p>We will see what forward EPS growth looks like after SVB.<\/p>\n<p>Take all of this with considerable skepticism, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. This data is typically updated weekly but I may or may not write about it, or update the analysis.<\/p>\n<p>Technically, ideally I&#8217;d like to see the SP 500 regain it&#8217;s 200-day moving average at 3,939 &#8211; 3,940. That&#8217;s an important technical level.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Clients know I&#8217;m not a big fan of vacations, since even with a laptop and an iPhone, one can feel&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[91],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14040","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-weekly-earnings-update"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14040","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14040"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14040\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14046,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14040\/revisions\/14046"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14040"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14040"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14040"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}