Summary \/ conclusion:<\/strong><\/em> SP 500 EPS growth has been slowing both the present and the expected 2023 growth rates. Other than health care and parts of industrials, like defense, it’s hard to find any clear earnings momentum. Even energy looks a little wobbly, both in it’s trading action and note the energy sectors estimate above in the latest table.<\/p>\nIt can always get worse too, but how much of this is already baked into current stock prices and valuations ?<\/p>\n
Technology is actually – per the last table – expected to show slightly faster growth in 2023 than 2022, which make sense with the falling dollar, but it’s clearly not the robust earnings and revenue growth of the last 5 years for tech.<\/p>\n
It’s almost like the entire Wall Street community has bet on a recession and it hasn’t shown up. Today’s ISM non-manufacturing was pretty healthy: remember too “services” are a far bigger part of the US economy than manufacturing. It’s almost an 80% services \/ 20% manufacturing ratio, today. From one report out of the St. Louis FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Database) “durable manufacturing” which is manufacturing with a very long cycle, like Boeing, (and some of the defense companies) and Ford and GM, now comprise just 5% of annual GDP growth versus 50% – 55% in the 1960’s.<\/p>\n
The slowing in the tech mega-caps and the software names is not a plus: those names always get a lot of media attention.<\/p>\n
Take this all with a grain of salt and substantial skepticism. It’s just one opinion and it can change quickly.<\/p>\n
As always, thanks for reading.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The attack on Rackspace left this blog and blogger without email from Thursday night, December 1st to Saturday night, December…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[91],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13775","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-weekly-earnings-update"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13775","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13775"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13775\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13782,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13775\/revisions\/13782"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13775"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13775"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13775"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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