{"id":13500,"date":"2022-10-09T18:12:11","date_gmt":"2022-10-10T00:12:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=13500"},"modified":"2022-10-18T11:29:42","modified_gmt":"2022-10-18T17:29:42","slug":"some-charts-some-fundamental-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=13500","title":{"rendered":"Some Charts, Some Fundamental Data"},"content":{"rendered":"

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It’s been said that Goldman Sachs had a 5,100 SP 500 target for year-end 2022, and thought the fed funds rate would be at 1% by the same deadline. This might explain why Goldman held those targets. There was a rash of articles and CNBC comments lambasting the Fed and Powell that started about 3 weeks ago. This is a Bespoke table cut-and-pasted from the October 6 “Chart of the Day”.<\/p>\n

The Fed fiddled while the US capital markets burned.<\/p>\n

This should infuriate most investors, but that is wasted energy. My guess is they could be late in reducing the fed funds rate when the time comes too.<\/p>\n

This blog thought the June ’22 lows would hold, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. Next major support for the SP 500 is 3,550 or the 50-month moving average.<\/p>\n

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Great chart from Mike Zaccardi posted to twitter. (@MikeZaccardi). Tried to describe this in the weekly SP 500 earnings update<\/a>.<\/p>\n

What’s interesting is the current EPS estimates vs the “peak”: 2022 EPS is down about 3% and 2023 EPS estimate has slid about 4%. That’s still not very severe.<\/p>\n

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Gary Morrow from a LinkedIn post on the “midterm election year” effect. Note the Nov – April return profile.<\/p>\n

The midterm elections were a month from yesterday, or will take place November 8, 2022.<\/p>\n

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From JP Morgan’s Guide to the Market as of 9\/30\/22:<\/em>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

If you are wondering which sectors might be impacted by the strong dollar, here’s each sector of the SP 500 and it’s % of Non-US sales:<\/p>\n