{"id":12083,"date":"2021-10-04T14:12:32","date_gmt":"2021-10-04T20:12:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=12083"},"modified":"2021-10-04T14:12:32","modified_gmt":"2021-10-04T20:12:32","slug":"changes-in-q3-21-expected-revenue-growth-rates-for-the-sp-500","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=12083","title":{"rendered":"Changes in Q3 &#8217;21 Expected Revenue Growth Rates for the SP 500"},"content":{"rendered":"<header class=\"entry-header\">\n<div class=\"entry-header-row\">\n<div class=\"entry-header-column\">\n<h1 class=\"entry-title\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Droid Serif', serif; font-size: 20px; color: #0a0a0a;\">There are 11 sectors in the SP 500.<\/span><\/h1>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>Readers need to see how the\u00a0<em><strong>expected Q3 \u201921 sector revenue growth rates have changed<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0since mid-August \u201921 or the unofficial end of Q2 \u201921 earnings season:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>Consumer Discretionary:<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0On 10\/1, 10.6% y.y revenue growth is expected, versus 10.4% on 8\/13\/21;<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Consumer Staples:<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0On 10\/1, 8.3% y.y revenue growth is expected, 10.4% on 8\/13\/21;<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Energy:<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0on 10\/1, 57.8% y.y revenue growth is expected, vs 57.9% on 8\/13\/21;<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Financial:<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0on 10\/1, -0.8% y.y revenue growth is expected vs -1.7% on 8\/13\/21;<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Health Care:<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0on 10\/1, 11.1% y.y revenue growth is expected vs 10.7% on 8\/13\/21;<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Industrials:<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0on 10\/1, 17.8% y.y revenue growth is expected vs 19.2% on 8\/13\/21;<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Basic Materials:<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0on 10\/1, 28.4% y.y revenue growth expected vs 28.7% on 8\/13\/21;<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Real Estate:<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0on 10\/1, 13.1% y.y revenue growth expected, vs 12.8% on 8\/13\/21;<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Technology:<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0on 10\/1, 18.7% y.y revenue growth expected, 18.1% on 8\/13\/21;<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Communication Services:<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0on 10\/1, 17.3% y.y revenue growth expected, vs 17.5% on 8\/13\/21;<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Utilities:<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0on 10\/1, 5.2% y.y revenue growth expected, vs 6.7% on 8\/13\/21;<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>SP 500:<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0on 10\/1, 14.1% y\/y revenue growth expected, vs 13.9% as of 8\/13\/21;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Sectors ranked from strongest to weakest expected Q3 \u201921 revenue growth:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>Energy:<\/strong>\u00a0<\/em>57.8%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Basic Mat:<\/strong><\/em>\u00a028.4%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Technology:<\/strong><\/em>\u00a018.7%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Industrials:<\/strong><\/em>\u00a017.8%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Comm Services:<\/strong>\u00a0<\/em>17.3%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Real Estate:<\/strong><\/em>\u00a013.1%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Health Care:<\/strong><\/em>\u00a011.1%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Cons Disc:<\/strong><\/em>\u00a010.6%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Cons Staples:<\/strong>\u00a0<\/em>10.6%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Utilities:<\/strong><\/em>\u00a05.2%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Financials:<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0-0.8%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>SP 500:<\/strong>\u00a0<\/em>14.1%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Sectors with the biggest upward revisions since August 13 \u201921 for Q3 \u201921 revenue:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Technology saw a 60 bp\u2019s increase on an expected 18.7% growth rate;<\/li>\n<li>Health Care saw a 40 bp increase on an expected 11.1% growth rate;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Sectors with the biggest downward revisions since August \u201913 \u201921 for Q3 \u201921 revenue:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Consumer Staples saw a 210 bp decrease since 8\/13\/21 probably due to the stronger dollar;<\/li>\n<li>Industrials saw a 140 bp decrease since 8\/13\/21;<\/li>\n<li>Utilities saw a 150 bo decrease on a mid single digit growth rate;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em><strong>Commentary:<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0Tesla\u2019s announcement over the weekend of stronger-than-expected Q3 \u201921 car deliveries will likely help the Consumer Discretionary sector next week in terms of possible revisions, although\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=12041\">Tesla\u2019s earnings weight is much smaller than it\u2019s market cap weight<\/a>\u00a0in the SP 500.<\/p>\n<p>The dollar\u2019s influence is bigger than readers might suspect on the SP 500 since 40% \u2013 45% of the entire benchmark\u2019s revenue is non-US.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Summary \/ conclusion: <\/strong><\/em>This article was originally posted to the blog on Saturday, October 2, 2021, but wasn&#8217;t picked up by Seeking Alpha, so it&#8217;s been amended to be included in Seeking Alpha&#8217;s published articles.<\/p>\n<p>Per Bespoke&#8217;s research today, the SP 500 has now reached &#8220;extremely oversold&#8221; levels, worse than the oversold extreme seen in late October of 2020.<\/p>\n<p>While today might not have been the exact bottom, you&#8217;d have to think &#8220;extremely oversold&#8221; is within a 9-iron of a longer-term tradeable bounce.<\/p>\n<p>So far &#8211; since mid-August &#8211; anyway, the lack of revenue revisions could bode well for Q3 &#8217;21 earnings.<\/p>\n<p>Financials will report first next week, as they always do: JP Morgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo all report next Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Morgan Stanley and Schwab are in there too, although I don&#8217;t see Goldman on Briefing.com&#8217;s list of next week&#8217;s reports.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There are 11 sectors in the SP 500. Readers need to see how the\u00a0expected Q3 \u201921 sector revenue growth rates&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12083","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12083","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12083"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12083\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12085,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12083\/revisions\/12085"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12083"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12083"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12083"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}