{"id":11748,"date":"2021-07-09T15:44:31","date_gmt":"2021-07-09T21:44:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=11748"},"modified":"2021-07-09T15:44:31","modified_gmt":"2021-07-09T21:44:31","slug":"sp-500-weekly-earnings-update-year-over-year-growth-rates-will-start-to-slow-top-10-positions-as-of-6-30-21","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=11748","title":{"rendered":"SP 500 Weekly Earnings Update: Year-over-Year Growth Rates will Start to Slow \/ Top 10 Positions as of 6\/30\/21"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/earningsweekof716.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-11749\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/earningsweekof716-300x172.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"172\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/earningsweekof716-300x172.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/earningsweekof716-150x86.png 150w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/earningsweekof716.png 462w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Briefing.com publishes a list of the coming week&#8217;s earnings releases every Friday, and above is next week&#8217;s slate of companies scheduled to report their Q2 &#8217;21 financial results.<\/p>\n<p>Next Tuesday, July 13th, pre-market we get JP Morgan, and Goldman Sachs and then Wednesday we see Bank of America&#8217;s 2nd quarter&#8217;s results as well as Wells Fargo.<\/p>\n<p>At least 18 major financial services firms report next week.<\/p>\n<p>Here is another look at scheduled earnings releases over the next 2 weeks, from Bespoke:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/bespokeearningsreleases7921.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-11752\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/bespokeearningsreleases7921-244x300.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"244\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/bespokeearningsreleases7921-244x300.png 244w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/bespokeearningsreleases7921-122x150.png 122w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/bespokeearningsreleases7921.png 754w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 244px) 100vw, 244px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Expect Y\/Y Growth Rates to Slow Going Forward:\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/q221fwdepsrevgrorates7921.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-11753\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/q221fwdepsrevgrorates7921-300x253.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"253\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/q221fwdepsrevgrorates7921-300x253.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/q221fwdepsrevgrorates7921-150x126.png 150w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/q221fwdepsrevgrorates7921.png 674w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The source data is IBES by Refinitiv, but the trends tracked weekly by this blog, shows that y\/y growth rates will slow as compares get tougher against 2020&#8217;s recovery.<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s probably not a big surprise to readers.<\/p>\n<p>Look at the y\/y growth in percentages Q2 &#8217;21 EPS and revenue. The 2nd quarter&#8217;s &#8217;21 EPS expected growth rate as of this weekend, has risen 20% since 12\/31\/20. Expected revenue growth has risen from 12% to 18% for Q2 &#8217;21.<\/p>\n<p>The &#8220;average&#8221; y\/y revenue growth rate for the SP 500 going back to Q4 &#8217;12 (when I first started tracking the data) is +2.5%. Average EPS growth is +4.9%.<\/p>\n<p>Look at the above and below spreadsheets against that historical average.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>How does 2022 look ?\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/2022epsrevrevisions7921.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-11754\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/2022epsrevrevisions7921-300x124.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"124\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/2022epsrevrevisions7921-300x124.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/2022epsrevrevisions7921-150x62.png 150w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/2022epsrevrevisions7921.png 713w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>2022&#8217;s expected quarterly growth rates for the SP 500 will return to a more normal, historical pattern.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>SP 500 data:\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The forward 4-quarter estimate this week is $199.63 vs last week&#8217;s $199.34 and 12\/31\/20&#8217;s estimate of $159.02<\/li>\n<li>The PE on the forward estimate is now 21.89x<\/li>\n<li>The SP 500 earnings yield is 4.57% vs last week&#8217;s 4.64%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Top 10 client positions as of 6\/30\/21:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>Microsoft (MSFT):<\/strong><\/em> +22.3% YTD return<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Blackrock Strategic Income:<\/strong><\/em> +1.11% YTD return<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Vanguard EM ETF (VWO):<\/strong><\/em> +9.09% YTD return<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Amazon (AMZN):<\/strong><\/em> +5.63% YTD return<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>JP Morgan Income Fund:<\/strong> <\/em>+3.45% YTD return<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Schwab (SCHW):<\/strong> <\/em>+37.95% YTD return<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>JP Morgan (JPM):<\/strong><\/em> +23.82% YTD return<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>SP 500 equal-weight (RSP):<\/strong> <\/em>+19.06%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Oakmark International (OAKIX):<\/strong><\/em> +13.68% YTD return<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Tesla (TSLA):<\/strong> <\/em>-3.68% YTD return<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>SP 500 YTD return as of 6\/30\/21: +15.25%<\/p>\n<p>Top 10 equity positions as of 6\/30\/21:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>MSFT<\/li>\n<li>VWO<\/li>\n<li>AMZN<\/li>\n<li>SCHW<\/li>\n<li>JPM<\/li>\n<li>RSP<\/li>\n<li>OAKIX<\/li>\n<li>TSLA<\/li>\n<li>QQQ<\/li>\n<li>GOOGL<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em><strong>Summary \/ conclusion: <\/strong><\/em>while everyone wants to talk individual stocks and individual stock earnings expectations, tracking the SP 500 data as a whole, and the patterns in evidence, still indicates the higher revisions to expected quarterly growth rates hasn&#8217;t changed for the key benchmark for the last 6 months.<\/p>\n<p>The big reports this week will come from financials. Expected revenue growth for the sector is -5.3% for the 2nd quarter, while EPS growth is expected at +102%. 3rd quarter, 2021 Financial sector revenue growth is -2.7% while EPS next quarter is looking at +15.2% as of this week.<\/p>\n<p>We&#8217;ll know more after the financials report this week. With loan loss reserve releases, there still should be capital to returned to bank and financial sector investors.<\/p>\n<p>Coming this weekend will be a deeper dive into technology and financial sectors for readers.<\/p>\n<p>Take everything you read on this blog with a healthy dose of skepticism. Invest your money based on your financial profile and your own appetite for volatility and risk.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Briefing.com publishes a list of the coming week&#8217;s earnings releases every Friday, and above is next week&#8217;s slate of companies&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[229,91],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11748","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-top-10-client-holdings","category-weekly-earnings-update"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11748","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11748"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11748\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11760,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11748\/revisions\/11760"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11748"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11748"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11748"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}