{"id":11525,"date":"2021-05-14T17:04:40","date_gmt":"2021-05-14T23:04:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=11525"},"modified":"2021-05-14T17:04:40","modified_gmt":"2021-05-14T23:04:40","slug":"sp-500-earnings-update-still-good","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=11525","title":{"rendered":"SP 500 Earnings Update: Still Good"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/2021epsrevrevisions51421.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-11526\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/2021epsrevrevisions51421-300x158.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"158\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/2021epsrevrevisions51421-300x158.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/2021epsrevrevisions51421-150x79.png 150w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/2021epsrevrevisions51421-768x404.png 768w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/2021epsrevrevisions51421.png 824w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Data source: IBES data by Refinitiv<\/p>\n<p>Starting out with the standard table showing 2021 SP 500 EPS and revenue revisions, we should probably expect a slowing in the growth rates maybe starting next week, since the unofficial earnings season comes to an end with Walmart&#8217;s report Wednesday morning.<\/p>\n<p>However rather than guess let&#8217;s see what the data tells us.<\/p>\n<p>So far the 2021 EPS and revenue revisions look fine.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>The forward earnings curve:\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/SP500fwdEPScurve51421.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-11528\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/SP500fwdEPScurve51421-291x300.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"291\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/SP500fwdEPScurve51421-291x300.png 291w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/SP500fwdEPScurve51421-146x150.png 146w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/SP500fwdEPScurve51421.png 718w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 291px) 100vw, 291px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Data source: IBES data by Refinitiv<\/p>\n<p>For a couple of reasons, ive let this table slide the last 5 &#8211; 6 weeks, but here is the latest, with an old quarter falling off and a new quarter being added on.<\/p>\n<p>Note the substantial 4-week rate(s) of change when Financials and Tech stocks reported.<\/p>\n<p>SP 500 data by the numbers:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The forward 4-quarter estimate rose to $190.12 this past week from $189.96 last week. What&#8217;s surprising about the data is that &#8211; typically &#8211; we get sequential declines in the &#8220;forward 4-quarter&#8221; estimate during the 12 weeks of a quarter but a sequential decline has only happened last December 25th and then again on March 26th of 2021.<\/li>\n<li>The PE on the forward estimate is 22x<\/li>\n<li>The SP 500 earnings yield is at 4.56% vs 4.49% last week, nearing the high of 4.61% from late January &#8217;21.<\/li>\n<li>2021, 2022 and 2023 SP 500 full year EPS have continued to trek higher every week. Pretty unprecedented period.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em><strong>Summary \/ conclusion:<\/strong><\/em> There is little change to the underlying SP 500 earnings strength. This week we got back to updating and posting the &#8220;forward 4-quarter&#8221; SP 500 earnings curve, and the revisions after Tech and Financials reported were pretty robust. (Check the 2nd spreadsheet.)<\/p>\n<p>Let see what happens after retail earnings.<\/p>\n<p>Take everything you read here with a grain of salt. Tracking SP 500 earnings data has it&#8217;s predictive flaws. Sometimes the market declines for reasons not earnings-related.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Data source: IBES data by Refinitiv Starting out with the standard table showing 2021 SP 500 EPS and revenue revisions,&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[91,4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11525","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-weekly-earnings-update","category-wmt"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11525","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11525"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11525\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11530,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11525\/revisions\/11530"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11525"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11525"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11525"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}