{"id":11496,"date":"2021-05-01T15:46:41","date_gmt":"2021-05-01T21:46:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=11496"},"modified":"2021-05-01T15:46:41","modified_gmt":"2021-05-01T21:46:41","slug":"sp-500-earnings-q1-21-sp-500-eps-growth-has-jumped-to-46-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=11496","title":{"rendered":"SP 500 Earnings: Q1 &#8217;21 SP 500 EPS Growth has Jumped to 46.3%"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Some quick stats: <\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>As the headline says, the Q1 &#8217;21 SP 500 expected EPS growth rate is now 46.3%;<\/li>\n<li>Q2 &#8217;21 expected SP 500 EPS growth rate is 60%, which will be the easiest comp versus 2020;<\/li>\n<li>This same Q1 &#8217;21 expected growth rate was 16% on 12\/31\/20;<\/li>\n<li>The expected Q1 &#8217;21 revenue growth rate is now 11.6%;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/q121fwdepsrevgrorates43021.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-11497\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/q121fwdepsrevgrorates43021-300x228.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"228\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/q121fwdepsrevgrorates43021-300x228.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/q121fwdepsrevgrorates43021-150x114.png 150w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/q121fwdepsrevgrorates43021-768x583.png 768w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/q121fwdepsrevgrorates43021.png 818w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Source: IBES data by Refinitiv<\/p>\n<p>This table or spreadsheet has been kept for readers since the pandemic struck. I wanted readers to see the week-to-week changes in growth rates since &#8220;This Week in Earnings&#8221; truncates the data readers \/ investors lose the impact of inflection points.<\/p>\n<p>The progression has been remarkable, but hardly a surprise given Fed liquidity and Administration stimulus and spending.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/2021expsectorgrowthrates43021.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-11498\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/2021expsectorgrowthrates43021-300x47.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"47\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/2021expsectorgrowthrates43021-300x47.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/2021expsectorgrowthrates43021-1024x161.png 1024w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/2021expsectorgrowthrates43021-150x24.png 150w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/2021expsectorgrowthrates43021-768x121.png 768w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/2021expsectorgrowthrates43021-1536x242.png 1536w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/2021expsectorgrowthrates43021.png 1548w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Source: IBES data by Refinitiv<\/p>\n<p>In this table, which has been kept up every week for clients, note the change in Communication Services (Google) and Tech (MSFT and AAPL) this week.<\/p>\n<p>The two sectors are highlighted in black.<\/p>\n<p>Consumer Discretionary hasn&#8217;t changed much despite Amazon&#8217;s earnings Thursday night. Either the revisions are sparce, or the sell-side hasn&#8217;t fully upgraded their numbers for 2021.<\/p>\n<p>Note how Financial sector earnings continue to be revised higher. That could be a function of personal income at an all-time-high and the expectation that credit losses will continue to decline dramatically.<\/p>\n<p>The fact is these upward revisions are pretty incredible, and the peak will likely be with 2nd quarter, 2021 earnings releases in mid-July &#8217;21.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Summary \/ conclusion: <\/strong><\/em>A busy work schedule is preventing me from writing about anything but the basic SP 500 data, and it&#8217;s been such a positive story for so long, it&#8217;s almost getting tiresome. It&#8217;s hard to understand how sell-side analysts have so badly missed the underlying strength in so many of the sectors like Financials, like Consumer Discretionary, etc.<\/p>\n<p>The compares get tougher after July &#8217;21 and the 2nd quarter is reported. Keep that in mind.<\/p>\n<p>The market action around Microsoft, Apple and Amazon this week &#8211; despite remarkable upside in EPS and revenue (actual vs consensus estimates) leads me to believe we have a few more months of sluggish action ahead in the mega-caps. (Long all three, but much more MSFT and AMZN, than AAPL).<\/p>\n<p>However take any prediction with substantial skepticism. The rotation started last September &#8217;20 away from the &#8220;mega-cap 6&#8221; (top names in SP 500 by market cap) and began in earnest with the election in early November &#8217;21, as Financials, Energy, Retail, &#8220;value investing&#8221;, etc. really took flight.<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m expecting this to even back out in the back half of 2021.<\/p>\n<p>Interesting that as of this weekend, the consensus 2022 EPS estimate of $207.93 is looking for 12% growth next year &#8211; still double digits.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Some quick stats: As the headline says, the Q1 &#8217;21 SP 500 expected EPS growth rate is now 46.3%; Q2&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[91],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11496","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-weekly-earnings-update"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11496","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11496"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11496\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11499,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11496\/revisions\/11499"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11496"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11496"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11496"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}