{"id":11363,"date":"2021-03-19T15:49:42","date_gmt":"2021-03-19T21:49:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=11363"},"modified":"2021-03-19T15:49:42","modified_gmt":"2021-03-19T21:49:42","slug":"sp-weekly-earnings-update-not-much-change-revisions-remain-positive","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=11363","title":{"rendered":"SP Weekly Earnings Update: Not Much Change &#8211; Revisions Remain Positive"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/ryandetrickindexreturnsYTD31921.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-11364\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/ryandetrickindexreturnsYTD31921-300x272.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"272\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/ryandetrickindexreturnsYTD31921-300x272.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/ryandetrickindexreturnsYTD31921-150x136.png 150w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/ryandetrickindexreturnsYTD31921.png 731w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Starting the earnings update with a Twitter post from Ryan Detrick of LPL Financial. In particular note the sector return data.<\/p>\n<p>Sector performance YTD in &#8217;21 is simply mirroring commodity price movements, probably not a surprise to many. Here are the sectors with the biggest increase in expected EPS growth estimates for 2021:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Energy &#8211; since 12\/31\/20, the expected EPS growth for 2021 has increased from 672% to 767%, which is deceptive since we were dealing with negative numbers for 2020. Still the 30% return for the sector in 2021 speaks for itself. Energy fell 6% &#8211; 7% this week on the sharp drop in crude oil on Thursday, 3\/18\/21.<\/li>\n<li>Basic Materials: +7.5% YTD for the sector, the expected sector EPS growth has increased from 30% to 39% since 12\/31\/20. Examining Morningstar&#8217;s portfolio data on the Basic Materials ETF XLB, it is populated with a lot of names I&#8217;ve never followed.<\/li>\n<li>Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services are both seeing their expected EPS growth forecasts reduced for 2021, both by about 1,000 basis points or 10%.<\/li>\n<li>Technology, Health Care and the Financial sectors are all seeing modest upward EPS growth revisions since 12\/31\/20 for the full-year 2021 forecast. This blog <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=11357\">updated the Tech sector&#8217;s quarterly EPS expectations last night<\/a> and the revisions continue higher.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>SP 500 Weekly Earnings data (source IBES data by Refinitiv)<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem;\">The forward 4-quarter SP 500 EPS estimate jumped to $175.60 this week from $174.91 last week.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li>The PE ratio is 22x the expected &#8217;21 estimate.<\/li>\n<li>The SP 500 earnings yield is 4.48% vs 4.44% last week and 4.23% as of 12\/31\/20.<\/li>\n<li>Here&#8217;s a change: the &#8220;average&#8221; combined 2020 and 2021 expected SP 500 EPS growth has increased to 6%.<\/li>\n<li>The expected 2021 SP 500 EPS growth rate is now 25% versus 23% as of 12\/3120.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;-<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>SP 500 EPS &#8220;rate of change&#8221;\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/SP500epsrateofchange31921-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-11367\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/SP500epsrateofchange31921-1-300x207.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"207\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/SP500epsrateofchange31921-1-300x207.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/SP500epsrateofchange31921-1-1024x707.png 1024w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/SP500epsrateofchange31921-1-150x104.png 150w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/SP500epsrateofchange31921-1-768x531.png 768w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/SP500epsrateofchange31921-1.png 1045w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Note the 12-week rate of change for the SP 500 forward estimate curve.<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;-<\/p>\n<p>Once again the following table shows the upward revisions to 2021 quarterly EPS growth rates.<\/p>\n<p>However, note how expected quarterly revenue growth rates have slowed, at least for this week (far right columns).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/q3q42021expgrorates31921.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-11368\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/q3q42021expgrorates31921-300x278.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"278\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/q3q42021expgrorates31921-300x278.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/q3q42021expgrorates31921-150x139.png 150w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/q3q42021expgrorates31921-768x712.png 768w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/q3q42021expgrorates31921.png 816w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Summary \/ conclusion:\u00a0 <\/strong><\/em>There will be more on the Tech sector this weekend for readers, but there is little change to the upward revision pressure on SP 500 EPS estimates as a whole, which has been in evidence for the last 9 &#8211; 11 months. What&#8217;s interesting for readers is the sector behavior and performance this year is pretty much inline with the SP 500 earnings data from IBES \/ Refinitiv. While Energy is a little deceptive given the drop in crude oil in 2020 and then comparing expected 2021 growth rates to negative numbers, the Basic Materials sector has seen a nice surge in EPS estimates this year.<\/p>\n<p>As the revisions slow into month and quarter end, and analysts await Q1 &#8217;21 data, there is little new in terms of SP 500 EPS trends and revisions.<\/p>\n<p>Revisions remain mostly positive,<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Starting the earnings update with a Twitter post from Ryan Detrick of LPL Financial. In particular note the sector return&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[210,91],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11363","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sp-500-estimate-revision-data","category-weekly-earnings-update"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11363","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11363"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11363\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11371,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11363\/revisions\/11371"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11363"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11363"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11363"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}