{"id":11321,"date":"2021-02-26T16:06:12","date_gmt":"2021-02-26T22:06:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=11321"},"modified":"2021-02-26T16:06:12","modified_gmt":"2021-02-26T22:06:12","slug":"sp-500-weekly-earnings-update-growth-is-good-sp-500-eps-revisions-still-higher","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=11321","title":{"rendered":"SP 500 Weekly Earnings Update: &#8220;Growth is Good&#8221; &#8211; SP 500 EPS Revisions Still Higher"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>This week will be started off with a link from Factset, John Butter and his crew, as <a href=\"https:\/\/insight.factset.com\/second-highest-increase-in-sp-500-estimates-since-2002-for-q1\">this link<\/a> from Factset sent to readers this Friday, February 26th, 2021, that Q1 &#8217;21 SP 500 estimates have started out with their 2nd highest increase since 2002.<\/p>\n<p>Readers were given a jump on this with <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=11311\">last week&#8217;s blog post<\/a> when I write about the upward revisions to Q1 &#8217;21 and also linked Q2 &#8217;21.<\/p>\n<p>In the ever-present tussle between the market&#8217;s valuation and SP 500 earnings, pay attention to the market for sure. Jeff Miller over at A Dash of Insight had some <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dashofinsight.com\/weighing-the-week-ahead-building-a-transition-portfolio\/\">interesting and very prescient thoughts<\/a> on the market last week. Jeff occasionally picks up this blog, for which I am very grateful, but on it&#8217;s own, &#8220;A Dash&#8221; was voted one of the Top 10 financial blogs in America several years ago. Jeff packs a lot of info in every week. Become a regular reader and your portfolio will benefit.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Michael Santoli reported last week on CNBC that earnings momentum was slowing, but that could be a function of the fact that as today, 479 SP 500 companies have reported their Q4 &#8217;20 results. In March, &#8217;21 investors get a handful of critical reports from the likes of Costco, (COST) FedEx (FDX), Accenture (ACN), Micron Technology (MU), Oracle (ORCL), etc. and a host of other retail, which will give us a good look at a wide swath of the economy through the end of February, &#8217;21. As of last Friday, February 18th, 2021, 399 companies had reported Q4 &#8217;20 results, or roughly 80% of the SP 500.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/SP500epsesttable22621.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-11325\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/SP500epsesttable22621-300x166.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"166\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/SP500epsesttable22621-300x166.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/SP500epsesttable22621-1024x565.png 1024w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/SP500epsesttable22621-150x83.png 150w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/SP500epsesttable22621-768x424.png 768w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/SP500epsesttable22621.png 1212w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Source: IBES data by Refiniv, dated 2\/26\/21.<\/p>\n<p>As a check on the hard EPS data that will be shown shortly the above table is an internal spreadsheet of the weekly SP 500 EPS &#8220;revision&#8221; data from Refinitiv. Each highlighted block is the earnings season, with the top block being the heart of Q4 &#8217;20 earnings season and each successive block being Q3 &#8217;20 and then Q2 &#8217;20.<\/p>\n<p>A mix of 70% positive \/ 30% negative revisions for the SP 500 is still very healthy.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>SP 500 EPS data &#8211; looking at the numbers:\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The forward 4-quarter estimate this week is $174.19 vs last week&#8217;s $173.68 and 12\/31\/20&#8217;s $159.02.<\/li>\n<li>The PE on the forward estimate is 21.9x, vs 22.5x last week and 26x at 12\/31\/20;<\/li>\n<li>The SP 500 earnings yield is now 4.57% vs 4.45% last week and 4.23% on 12\/31\/20. With the SP 500 down 2% this week and the forward estimate higher, the SP 500 earnings yield naturally rose.<\/li>\n<li>For the 4th straight week, the &#8220;average&#8221; expected SP 500 EPS growth for both calendar 2020 and 2021 is 5%, up from 4% for months.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em><strong>&#8220;Rate-of-change&#8221;<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/SP500fwdepscurve22621.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-11326\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/SP500fwdepscurve22621-300x263.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"263\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/SP500fwdepscurve22621-300x263.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/SP500fwdepscurve22621-150x131.png 150w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/SP500fwdepscurve22621-768x673.png 768w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/SP500fwdepscurve22621.png 829w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Source: internal spreadsheet tracking IBES data by Refinitiv.<\/p>\n<p>The 4-week rate of change has slowed a little the last few weeks as SP 500 earnings reports start to dwindle.<\/p>\n<p>However the trend is still higher.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Finally, the best table of all:\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/q3q42021expgrorates22621.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-11327\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/q3q42021expgrorates22621-300x262.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"262\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/q3q42021expgrorates22621-300x262.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/q3q42021expgrorates22621-150x131.png 150w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/q3q42021expgrorates22621-768x670.png 768w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/q3q42021expgrorates22621.png 807w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Source: internal spreadsheet tracking IBES data by Refinitiv<\/p>\n<p>Haven&#8217;t shown this table in a few weeks, but note the continued upward revisions to &#8220;expected&#8221; SP 500 EPS growth and revenue growth through Q3 &#8217;21.<\/p>\n<p>The trends continue higher for the overall SP 500.<\/p>\n<p>Some sector analysis needs to be added to this.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Summary \/ conclusion: <\/strong><\/em>None of this data is a precise timing tool for the market, so be careful using it as such. The big news this week was the spike in the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.61% after a weak Treasury auction, but which finished the week at a reasonable 1.45% on late Friday afternoon.<\/p>\n<p>This blog <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=11273\">wrote about the rising 10-year Treasury yield<\/a> two weeks ago, when the key yield closed right at 1.20%.<\/p>\n<p>That being said, the market doesn&#8217;t like rising interest rates.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s a wet blanket for sure. I&#8217;m just wondering when mortgage rates and housing start to feel this &#8211; probably not for a while longer.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/schwab2021GDPforecasts22321.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-11332\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/schwab2021GDPforecasts22321-300x185.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"185\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/schwab2021GDPforecasts22321-300x185.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/schwab2021GDPforecasts22321-150x92.png 150w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/schwab2021GDPforecasts22321.png 602w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Here is a post from LizAnn Sonders at Schwab on the upward revisions to 2021 US GDP forecasts.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Growth is good&#8221; for the US stock markets, not so much for the US bond markets.<\/p>\n<p>More to come this weekend.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week will be started off with a link from Factset, John Butter and his crew, as this link from&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[190,91],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11321","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-10-year-treasury-yield","category-weekly-earnings-update"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11321","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11321"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11321\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11334,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11321\/revisions\/11334"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11321"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11321"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11321"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}