{"id":11158,"date":"2021-01-05T07:43:18","date_gmt":"2021-01-05T13:43:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=11158"},"modified":"2021-01-05T07:43:18","modified_gmt":"2021-01-05T13:43:18","slug":"long-term-returns-for-the-nasdaq-100","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=11158","title":{"rendered":"Long-Term Returns for the Nasdaq 100"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In the study we did of SP 500 returns for the last decade, the 20 years and since 1990, (article <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=11019\">here<\/a>), the Nasdaq 100 was omitted, so just out curiosity, and thanks to a comment Michael Santoli of CNBC made late last week when he noted that the years where the Nasdaq 100 or the QQQ&#8217;s were up 40% two years in a row, has historically spelled trouble for the market, I thought it was worth a look to draw some return comparison between the SP 500 and the Nasdaq 100 or QQQ&#8217;s:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>1-yr return: SP 500 +18.34%. QQQ&#8217;s +48.46%<\/li>\n<li>2-yr return: SP 500 +55.68%, QQQ&#8217;s +106.5% (average annual returns are +24.73% and +43.64%)<\/li>\n<li>3-yr return: SP 500 +48.85%. QQQ&#8217;s +106.3% (average annual returns are +14.14% and 20.21%<\/li>\n<li>5-yr return: SP 500 +103%. QQQ&#8217;s +193% (average annual returns are +15.20% and +23.97%)<\/li>\n<li>Since 2010: SP 500 +322%. QQQ&#8217;s +664.7% (average annual returns are +13.98% and +20.30%)<\/li>\n<li>Since 2000: SP 500 +284%. QQQ&#8217;s +294% (average annual returns are +6.61% and +6.64%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The left-hand returns are cumulative, while the parentheses returns are &#8220;average annual&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>What&#8217;s fascinating to me is that looking back 20 years to 1\/1\/2000, both the SP 500 and the Nasdaq 100 returns are still average, to below average.<\/p>\n<p>In this chart Bespoke confirms our conclusion from the November 27th, 2020 report linked above.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/bespokepricechg1420.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-11169\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/bespokepricechg1420-275x300.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"275\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/bespokepricechg1420-275x300.png 275w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/bespokepricechg1420-137x150.png 137w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/bespokepricechg1420-768x838.png 768w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/bespokepricechg1420.png 820w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 275px) 100vw, 275px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>For you stat junkies, in 2018, the SP 500 fell 4.5% after the fed funds rate and China trade war caught up to the SP 500 in the 4th quarter of 2018, so readers should note the difference in the 2-year and 3-year returns, and not the cumulative returns, but the average annual returns.<\/p>\n<p>It doesn&#8217;t take much &#8211; just a flat year even &#8211; to pull down average, annual returns for the benchmarks.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Summary \/ conclusion: <\/strong><\/em>My conclusion is pretty much the same looking at the Nasdaq 100 versus the SP 500: looking at the last 21 years, the long-term returns are slightly below-average, while the most recent 1 &#8211; 5 years returns are &#8211; well &#8211; quite extended. This was the same conclusion from the blog post linked in the first sentence on this post.<\/p>\n<p>Sentiment is very bullish coming into 2021 and that is worrisome.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the study we did of SP 500 returns for the last decade, the 20 years and since 1990, (article&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[255,252,191],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11158","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-average-annual-return","category-nasdaq-100","category-qqq"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11158","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11158"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11158\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11170,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11158\/revisions\/11170"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11158"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11158"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11158"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}